That is probably close to what they would suggest if this weren’t mainly just a metaphor for the weird ways that I’ve seen people thinking about AI timelines.
It might be a bit more complex than a simple weighted average because of discounting, but that would be the basic shape of the proper hedge.
That is probably close to what they would suggest if this weren’t mainly just a metaphor for the weird ways that I’ve seen people thinking about AI timelines.
It might be a bit more complex than a simple weighted average because of discounting, but that would be the basic shape of the proper hedge.