I predict that winners are on average less rational than rationalists. Risk level has an optimal point determined by expected payoff. But the maximal payoff keeps increasing as you increase risk. The winners we see are selected for high payoff. Thus they’re likely to be people who took more risks than were rational. We just don’t see all the losers who made the same decisions as the winners.
I predict that winners are on average less rational than rationalists. Risk level has an optimal point determined by expected payoff. But the maximal payoff keeps increasing as you increase risk. The winners we see are selected for high payoff. Thus they’re likely to be people who took more risks than were rational. We just don’t see all the losers who made the same decisions as the winners.