I don’t find these intuitive arguments reliable. In particular, I doubt it is meaningful to say that reflective oracle AIXI takes the complexity of its own counterfactual actions into account when weighing decisions. This is not how its prior works or interacts with its action choice. I don’t fully understand your intuition, and perhaps you’re discussing how it reasons about other agents in the environment, but this is much more complicated than you imply, and probably depends on the choice of reflective oracle. (I am doing a PhD related to this).
I don’t find these intuitive arguments reliable. In particular, I doubt it is meaningful to say that reflective oracle AIXI takes the complexity of its own counterfactual actions into account when weighing decisions. This is not how its prior works or interacts with its action choice. I don’t fully understand your intuition, and perhaps you’re discussing how it reasons about other agents in the environment, but this is much more complicated than you imply, and probably depends on the choice of reflective oracle. (I am doing a PhD related to this).