Thanks! Yeah, those are definitely questions I’d like to find some to think about harder (and encourage others to think about too). Writing towards the end, I did feel some tension at not having explained why that things weren’t game over one way or another, given the GPT-6 I describe is pretty damn capable.
My bet is that GPT-5 will be capable of recursive self-improvement. Not the strong FOOM-within-days that some have proposed as a possibility, but a more like a 100x improvement within a year. Nevertheless, I’m still hopeful that the dangers will become more evident, and even self-interested actors will take precautionary action.
Thanks! Yeah, those are definitely questions I’d like to find some to think about harder (and encourage others to think about too). Writing towards the end, I did feel some tension at not having explained why that things weren’t game over one way or another, given the GPT-6 I describe is pretty damn capable.
My bet is that GPT-5 will be capable of recursive self-improvement. Not the strong FOOM-within-days that some have proposed as a possibility, but a more like a 100x improvement within a year. Nevertheless, I’m still hopeful that the dangers will become more evident, and even self-interested actors will take precautionary action.