I’m not sure. It’s just that if it did I wouldn’t go for it.
I know one person who’s really well calibrated with probability, due to a lot of practice with poker and finance. When something actually is an x% probability, he actually internalizes it—he really expects it to happen x% of the time. He’s 80% likely to be right about something if he says he has an 80% confidence.
He doesn’t seem too bad off. Busy and stressed, yes, but not particularly sad. Cheerful, even.
Why would you expect it to come at the cost of some kind of screaming Cthulhu horror?
I’m not sure. It’s just that if it did I wouldn’t go for it.
I know one person who’s really well calibrated with probability, due to a lot of practice with poker and finance. When something actually is an x% probability, he actually internalizes it—he really expects it to happen x% of the time. He’s 80% likely to be right about something if he says he has an 80% confidence.
He doesn’t seem too bad off. Busy and stressed, yes, but not particularly sad. Cheerful, even.