the issue at stake is P(multiple killers) being very small, and P(knox guilty) - P(random person guilty) is less than zero due to the P(G guilty).
Or at least that is how I would weight them.
Given that someone was killed, the probability of multiple killers is not “very small”, according to statistics. Definitely not more than 50% but definitely substantial (as I stated in another comment.)
the issue at stake is P(multiple killers) being very small, and P(knox guilty) - P(random person guilty) is less than zero due to the P(G guilty).
Or at least that is how I would weight them.
Given that someone was killed, the probability of multiple killers is not “very small”, according to statistics. Definitely not more than 50% but definitely substantial (as I stated in another comment.)