Hmmm, but what does this give us? He talks about the difference between vague theories and technical theories, but then says that we can use a scoring rule to change the probabilities we assign to each type of theory.
But my question is still: when you increase your credence in a vague theory, what are you increasing your credence about? That the theory is true?
Nor can we say that it’s about picking the “best theory” out of the ones we have, since different theories may overlap partially.
If we can quantify how good a theory is at making accurate predictions (or rather, quantify a combination of accuracy and simplicity), that gives us a sense in which some theories are “better” (less wrong) than others, without needing theories to be “true”.
Hmmm, but what does this give us? He talks about the difference between vague theories and technical theories, but then says that we can use a scoring rule to change the probabilities we assign to each type of theory.
But my question is still: when you increase your credence in a vague theory, what are you increasing your credence about? That the theory is true?
Nor can we say that it’s about picking the “best theory” out of the ones we have, since different theories may overlap partially.
If we can quantify how good a theory is at making accurate predictions (or rather, quantify a combination of accuracy and simplicity), that gives us a sense in which some theories are “better” (less wrong) than others, without needing theories to be “true”.