I think for me the problem is that I’m not being Bayesian. I can’t make my brain assign 50% probability in a unified way. Instead, half my brain is convinced the hotel’s definitely behind me, half is convinced it’s ahead, they fail to cooperate on the epistemic prisoner’s dilemma and instead play tug-of-war with the steering wheel. And however I decide to make up my mind, they don’t stop playing tug-of-war with the steering wheel.
My brain often defaults to thinking of these situations in terms of potential loss, and I find the CFAR technique of reframing it as potential gain helpful. For example, my initial state might be “If I go ahead at full speed and the hotel is behind me, I’ll lose half an hour. But if I turn around and the hotel is ahead of me, I’ll also lose time.” The better state is “By default, driving at half speed might get me to the hotel in 15 minutes if I’m going in the right direction, and I’ll save ~8 minutes by going faster. Even if the hotel is behind me, I’ll save time by driving ahead faster.”
I think for me the problem is that I’m not being Bayesian. I can’t make my brain assign 50% probability in a unified way. Instead, half my brain is convinced the hotel’s definitely behind me, half is convinced it’s ahead, they fail to cooperate on the epistemic prisoner’s dilemma and instead play tug-of-war with the steering wheel. And however I decide to make up my mind, they don’t stop playing tug-of-war with the steering wheel.
My brain often defaults to thinking of these situations in terms of potential loss, and I find the CFAR technique of reframing it as potential gain helpful. For example, my initial state might be “If I go ahead at full speed and the hotel is behind me, I’ll lose half an hour. But if I turn around and the hotel is ahead of me, I’ll also lose time.” The better state is “By default, driving at half speed might get me to the hotel in 15 minutes if I’m going in the right direction, and I’ll save ~8 minutes by going faster. Even if the hotel is behind me, I’ll save time by driving ahead faster.”