welp yep was wrong about when on that one. still a ways to go before the stuff I was imagining. I’d guess 1 to 4 years? but it looks like foom is even softer than I thought. unless we’re like, dead in most timelines. I doubt that model but a friend keeps bringing it up, seems unfalsfiable but possible so who knows. gonna leave it up to the prediction markets for now in any case. looking forward to hopefully being wrong again.
welp yep was wrong about when on that one. still a ways to go before the stuff I was imagining. I’d guess 1 to 4 years? but it looks like foom is even softer than I thought. unless we’re like, dead in most timelines. I doubt that model but a friend keeps bringing it up, seems unfalsfiable but possible so who knows. gonna leave it up to the prediction markets for now in any case. looking forward to hopefully being wrong again.
I’ve written about the anthropic question. Appreciate the update!