Not “almost no gain”. My point is that it can be quantified, and it is exactly zero expected gain under all circumstances. You can verify this by drawing out any finite set of worlds containing “mediators”, and computing the expected number of disease losses minus disease gains as:
num(people with disease)*P(person with disease meditates)*P(person with disease who meditates loses the disease) - num(people without disease)*P(person without disease meditates)*P(person without disease who meditates gains the disease)
My point is that this number is always exactly zero. If you doubt this, you should try to construct a counterexample with a finite number of worlds.
I think I understand what you say—the expected utility of the whole procedure is zero.
For example, imagine that there are 3 copies and only one has the disease. All meditate. After the procedure, the copy with disease will have 2⁄3 chances of being cured. Each of two copies without the disease are getting 1⁄3 chance of having the disease which in sum gives 2⁄3 of total utility. In that case total utility of being cured = total utility of getting the disease and the whole procedure is neutral.
However, If I already know that I have the disease, and I am not altruistic to my copies, playing such game is a wining move to me?
However, If I already know that I have the disease, and I am not altruistic to my copies, playing such game is a wining move to me?
Correct. But if you don’t have the disease, you’re probably also not altruistic to your copies, so you would choose not to participate. Leaving the copies of you with the disease isolated and unable to “trade”.
Yes, it only works if other copies are meditating for some other reason. For example, they sleep or meditate for enlightenment. And they are exploited in this situation.
But don’t the non-diseased copies not just need to generally meditate, but to do some special kind of meditation where they forget the affirmative evidence they have that they don’t have the disease?
non-disease copies do not need to perform any changes in their meditation routine in this model, assuming that they naturelly forget their disease status during meditation.
Not “almost no gain”. My point is that it can be quantified, and it is exactly zero expected gain under all circumstances. You can verify this by drawing out any finite set of worlds containing “mediators”, and computing the expected number of disease losses minus disease gains as:
num(people with disease)*P(person with disease meditates)*P(person with disease who meditates loses the disease) - num(people without disease)*P(person without disease meditates)*P(person without disease who meditates gains the disease)
My point is that this number is always exactly zero. If you doubt this, you should try to construct a counterexample with a finite number of worlds.
I think I understand what you say—the expected utility of the whole procedure is zero.
For example, imagine that there are 3 copies and only one has the disease. All meditate. After the procedure, the copy with disease will have 2⁄3 chances of being cured. Each of two copies without the disease are getting 1⁄3 chance of having the disease which in sum gives 2⁄3 of total utility. In that case total utility of being cured = total utility of getting the disease and the whole procedure is neutral.
However, If I already know that I have the disease, and I am not altruistic to my copies, playing such game is a wining move to me?
Correct. But if you don’t have the disease, you’re probably also not altruistic to your copies, so you would choose not to participate. Leaving the copies of you with the disease isolated and unable to “trade”.
Yes, it only works if other copies are meditating for some other reason. For example, they sleep or meditate for enlightenment. And they are exploited in this situation.
Exactly.
In this scenario, why are the non-disease-having copies participating? They are not in a state of ignorance, they know they don’t have the disease.
I assume that meditation happens naturally, like sleep.
But don’t the non-diseased copies not just need to generally meditate, but to do some special kind of meditation where they forget the affirmative evidence they have that they don’t have the disease?
non-disease copies do not need to perform any changes in their meditation routine in this model, assuming that they naturelly forget their disease status during meditation.
I am not a mediator so maybe you have me beat, but it’s not immediately clear why you would assume this