Even if we could theoretically double output for a product, it doesn’t mean that there will be sufficient demand for it to be doubled. This potential depends on how much of the population already has thing X
Even if we could effectively double our workforce, if we are mostly replacing low-value jobs, then our economy wouldn’t double
Even if we could say halve the cost of producing robot workers, that might simply result in extra profits for a company instead of increasing the size of the economy
Even if we have a technology that could double global output, it doesn’t mean that we could or would deploy it in that time, especially given that companies are likely to be somewhat risk adverse and not scale up as fast as possible as they might be worried about demand. This is the weakest of the four arguments in my opinion, which is why it is last.
So economic progress may not accurately represent technological progress, meaning that if we use this framing we may get caught up in a bunch of economic debates instead of debates about capacity.
A few thoughts:
Even if we could theoretically double output for a product, it doesn’t mean that there will be sufficient demand for it to be doubled. This potential depends on how much of the population already has thing X
Even if we could effectively double our workforce, if we are mostly replacing low-value jobs, then our economy wouldn’t double
Even if we could say halve the cost of producing robot workers, that might simply result in extra profits for a company instead of increasing the size of the economy
Even if we have a technology that could double global output, it doesn’t mean that we could or would deploy it in that time, especially given that companies are likely to be somewhat risk adverse and not scale up as fast as possible as they might be worried about demand. This is the weakest of the four arguments in my opinion, which is why it is last.
So economic progress may not accurately represent technological progress, meaning that if we use this framing we may get caught up in a bunch of economic debates instead of debates about capacity.