I think of “extrapolation of historical trends” (with the last 40 years of slowing growth as an aberration) as the prototypical slow takeoff view. For example, this was clear in Robin and Eliezer’s Jane Street debate on the topic (though they debated concentration rather than speed), and seems like what’s implicit in Superintelligence.
At any rate, it seems like fast-takeoff proponents’ visualizations of the world normally involve powerful AI emerging in a world that hasn’t doubled over the last 4 years, so this is at least a disagreement if not what they mean by fast takeoff.
ETA: I agree it’s important to be clear what we are talking about though and that if slow takeoff invokes the wrong image then I should say something else.
I think of “extrapolation of historical trends” (with the last 40 years of slowing growth as an aberration) as the prototypical slow takeoff view. For example, this was clear in Robin and Eliezer’s Jane Street debate on the topic (though they debated concentration rather than speed), and seems like what’s implicit in Superintelligence.
At any rate, it seems like fast-takeoff proponents’ visualizations of the world normally involve powerful AI emerging in a world that hasn’t doubled over the last 4 years, so this is at least a disagreement if not what they mean by fast takeoff.
ETA: I agree it’s important to be clear what we are talking about though and that if slow takeoff invokes the wrong image then I should say something else.