In reality, either I am going to take one box or two. So when the two-boxer says, “If I take one box, I’ll get amount x,” and “If I take two boxes, I’ll get amount x+1000,” one of these statements is objectively counterfactual. Let’s suppose he is going to in fact take both boxes. Then his second takement is factual and his first statement counterfactual. Then his two statements are:
1)Although I am not in fact going to take only one box, were I to take only box, I would get amount x, namely the amount that would be in the box.
2)I am in fact going to take both boxes, and so I will get amount x+1000, namely 1000 more than how much is in fact in the other box.
From this it is obvious that x in the two statements has a different value, and so his conclusion that he will get more if he takes both boxes is false. For x has the value 1,000,000 in the first case, and 0 in the second. He mistakenly assumes it has the same value in the two cases.
Likewise, when the two-boxer says to the one boxer, “If you had taken both boxes, you would have gotten more,” his statement is counterfactual and false. For if the one-boxer had been a two boxer, there originally would have been nothing in the other box, and so he would have gotten only $1000 instead of $1,000,000.
In reality, either I am going to take one box or two. So when the two-boxer says, “If I take one box, I’ll get amount x,” and “If I take two boxes, I’ll get amount x+1000,” one of these statements is objectively counterfactual. Let’s suppose he is going to in fact take both boxes. Then his second takement is factual and his first statement counterfactual. Then his two statements are:
1)Although I am not in fact going to take only one box, were I to take only box, I would get amount x, namely the amount that would be in the box.
2)I am in fact going to take both boxes, and so I will get amount x+1000, namely 1000 more than how much is in fact in the other box.
From this it is obvious that x in the two statements has a different value, and so his conclusion that he will get more if he takes both boxes is false. For x has the value 1,000,000 in the first case, and 0 in the second. He mistakenly assumes it has the same value in the two cases.
Likewise, when the two-boxer says to the one boxer, “If you had taken both boxes, you would have gotten more,” his statement is counterfactual and false. For if the one-boxer had been a two boxer, there originally would have been nothing in the other box, and so he would have gotten only $1000 instead of $1,000,000.