P(vulcan mountain | you’re not in vulcan desert) = 1⁄3
P(vulcan mountain | guard says “you’re not in vulcan desert”) = P(guard says “you’re not in vulcan desert” | vulcan mountain) * P(vulcan mountain) / P(guard says “you’re not in vulcan desert”) = ((1/3) * (1/4)) / ((3/4) * (1/3)) = 1⁄3
Woops, you’re right; nevermind! There are algorithms that do give different results, such as justinpombrio mentions above.
P(vulcan mountain | you’re not in vulcan desert) = 1⁄3
P(vulcan mountain | guard says “you’re not in vulcan desert”) = P(guard says “you’re not in vulcan desert” | vulcan mountain) * P(vulcan mountain) / P(guard says “you’re not in vulcan desert”) = ((1/3) * (1/4)) / ((3/4) * (1/3)) = 1⁄3
Woops, you’re right; nevermind! There are algorithms that do give different results, such as justinpombrio mentions above.