I used the first chart, the compute required for GPT3, and my personal assessment that ChatGPT clearly meets the cutoff for tweet length, very probably meets it for short blog (but not by a wide margin), and clearly does not meet it for research paper, to create my own 75th percentile estimate for human slowdown of 25-75. It moves the P(TAI<=year) = 50% from ~2041 to ~2042, and the 75% from ~2060 to ~2061. Big changes! 😂
I used the first chart, the compute required for GPT3, and my personal assessment that ChatGPT clearly meets the cutoff for tweet length, very probably meets it for short blog (but not by a wide margin), and clearly does not meet it for research paper, to create my own 75th percentile estimate for human slowdown of 25-75. It moves the P(TAI<=year) = 50% from ~2041 to ~2042, and the 75% from ~2060 to ~2061. Big changes! 😂