Really fascinating stuff! I have a (possibly answered) question about how using expert updates on other expert prediction might be valuable.
You discuss the negative impacts of allowing experts to aggregate themselves, or viewing one another’s forecasts before initially submitting their own. Might there be value in allowing experts to submit multiple times, each time seeing the submitted predictions of a previous round? The final aggregation scheme would be able to not only assign a credence to each expert, but also gain a proxy for what credence the experts give to one another. In a more practical scenario where experts will talk if not collude, this might give better insight into how expert predictions are being created.
Thanks for taking the time to distill this work into a more approachable format—it certainly made the thesis more manageable!
Really fascinating stuff! I have a (possibly answered) question about how using expert updates on other expert prediction might be valuable.
You discuss the negative impacts of allowing experts to aggregate themselves, or viewing one another’s forecasts before initially submitting their own. Might there be value in allowing experts to submit multiple times, each time seeing the submitted predictions of a previous round? The final aggregation scheme would be able to not only assign a credence to each expert, but also gain a proxy for what credence the experts give to one another. In a more practical scenario where experts will talk if not collude, this might give better insight into how expert predictions are being created.
Thanks for taking the time to distill this work into a more approachable format—it certainly made the thesis more manageable!