I’ve read on twitter how the wheat situation might be improved by India surpluses. But when I googled for other sources I found: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/exclusive-india-acts-seize-gap-wheat-export-market-left-by-ukraine-war-2022-03-15/ That gives only about 5 million tonnes more than last year—less than one fourth of what Ukraine exports.
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Karma: 57
To understand Bucha (and other places) one first needs to look at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zrf0yLxViRo, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KFcfVWbyzU, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ev0x9pqYqvs and similar videos (https://www.google.com/search?q=ukrainian+civilians+confront+russian+soldiers+youtube). What you see there is people who are not afraid. But fear is an indispensable ingredient of authoritarian regimes. Russians know that they cannot govern people like those in these videos and decided to do something about that.
This is why it wasn’t concealed—they wanted the Ukraininans to know and start to be afraid.
I am looking for a python coder. The project is in Object Detection (finding Lego Blocks) - but I am looking rather for someone junior. I still do it just by myself—no company established—so I cannot help with visa sponsorship or something—but it can be fully remote and I could help with the other aspects of relocation to Poland (if for some reason Warsaw was attractive for any Russians fleeing the empire).
through giving me access to good ideas of the “invest in index funds” level
for me the point is about getting *consistently* good ideas, getting reliable ideas where applying scientific method is too hard. It is much less about self-improvement as it is about community improvement in the face of more and more connected (and thus weird) world. Rationality is epistemology for the internet era.
“If alien aircraft were on Earth, they would need to be carefully calibrated to give us grainy distant glimpses (in every possible way) but never more. If alien aircraft are here, they’re screwing with us.”
I don’t know—this inference seems rather weak. I try to be on time to appointments, most of my failures are pretty small—observing me being late a minute or two a couple of times does not mean that I calibrate being late to a minute or two. Failures would naturally cluster near the border line.
Plus they might be actively erasing evidence when it is too obvious.
One of the big surprised in this war for me is no news about usage of small drones with AI. Maybe there are some but still classified—but I would imagine that sophisticated opponents would now use massive amounts of them. They could be quite cheap and detecting people and weapons seems like pretty standard neural networks application. They could give the fighters full awareness of enemy moves with minimal attention requirements. I read about commercial drones being used, sometimes ones that require full immersion from the operator via goggles etc—drones with simple AI would be a game changer in this task.
The interesting tidbit is WHO calling CDC and having their statements retracted. How come? What authority has WHO over CDC? Why it needs to be everywhere the same? https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/09/the-world-forager-elite.html
Didn’t Trump withdrew US from WHO?
There is over a million people moved from Ukraine to Russia now (https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,28394968,ponad-milion-ukraincow-wywiezionych-do-rosji-czesc-z-nich-miala.html) and there is very little information about their whereabouts. Some of them might be voluntary refugees—but a huge part was deported against their will, sometimes into faraway parts of Russia. I’ve read they get papers stating that they must stay in those faraway regions for two years. I am curious what is the legal status of that. I suspect it is all very shaky even in Russian law standards and they can be helped with some pressure from the international community and maybe with just getting the information about their rights to them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ukrainian_refugee_crisis#Neighbouring_countries “According to the Ukrainian authorities, Russian troops in the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia are engaged in the forcible deportation of people from Ukraine to Russia, passing them off as refugees. According to the Russian government figures, 656,381 refugees had gone to Russia by 28 April.[1] In March, the Ukrainian foreign ministry alleged that 2,389 Ukrainian children had been abducted from Russian-occupied territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, and transferred to Russia, as well as “several thousand” residents of Mariupol”
Regarding Belgium—have a look at Czech Republic too.
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There is also the universal Girardian mimetic failure mode. It is a spiral of ever increasing desire for things and status, where we want things because someone other wants it. I once wrote an essay on that in the context of internet discussions: https://blog.p2pfoundation.net/online-conflict-in-the-light-of-mimetic-theory/2009/11/25
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Another failure mode: the replication crisis in science—where only new and surprising theses are being published, but there is no mechanism for reinforcing existing theories. This also happens in social media—people always want to learn new things. And probably more generally all the other things from https://www.gwern.net/Littlewood
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Cool—I really want to use it :)
My own pet idea is to let users have full control over their feed algorithm with a scripting language or something plus a generic Publish Subscribe infrastructure. But your web of trust could be pretty close in all the use cases that I imagine.
Just to get things rolling—what business model do you see for it?
What would be a proof of concept for it? A bare bones system—what would it have to have so that we could test it?
And what do you mean by a ‘browser app’?
Hmm—the charts show daily changes in proportion to the previous day—this is not exactly second derivative. For example the function x*x has a constant second derivative—but it would slope down on such a chart.
This is interesting subject—can we do here better than official science? As I understand the situation now there are still no good trials on this. There is one Italian trial that was heavily criticized: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22662103 , and one Chinese that has not been published yet: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=48880 - and some older ones for SARS https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15351731?dopt=Abstract
But maybe soon we’ll have better data: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments
I think official science should be pretty good on this one unless we find some mismatching incentives like in Inadequate Equilibria
See also Ben Thompson on social networking 2.0: https://stratechery.com/2020/social-networking-2-0/
I would presume that many people here had bought stuff at Silk Way—it is puzzling that the discourse about antigen tests is still about the official approval and not about how you can import reliable tests from abroad. For my personal use I found online pharmacy in Germany that sends to Poland and does not check if I am really a doctor—but they probably don’t send to US, so you need to find your own ways.
Thanks for the clarification. I was more thinking about the attitude towards China.
A honest question from an outsider (to American politics): isn’t it now convenient for the current political establishment to go with the the lab leak hypothesis and so the change should not be taken into account when updating priors?
I am surprised that nobody linked to Scott Alexander on ivermectin: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted (plus: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/higlights-from-the-comments-on-ivermectin?s=r). For me it more or less settles the subject—the most probable hypothesis is ivermectin de-warms people and it has a huge positive outcome on peoples health when people have warms (independently from covid—or maybe even dependently—because the warms decrease immune response fighting the virus) and unfortunately in many places on Earth worms are still prevalent enough that it shows in covid related trials.
But on the other hand I am pretty much sure that much of vaccines related info is now suppressed—not through a centralized censorship but via an emergent mechanism.
The clustering is pretty telling—anyone who claims that vaccines are dangerous also claims that ivermectin or HCQ treats covid, everyone who rejects ivermectin will also reject any claims about adverse effects of vaccines.
Yet another clustered subject is vaccine efficacy—it is pretty clear that injected vaccines don’t prevent getting ill and spreading the virus. Vaccination can limit the time of virus shedding—but actually the dangerous case is when we shed the virus when hot having other symptoms and for all we know vaccines might even increase the durability of that infection phase. This is something that is admitted by the ‘main stream’ - but the implication of that is that “vaccine passports” are silly, because vaccinated persons can still spread the virus and that will never be accepted by the ‘pro-vaccines’ side (which is now main stream).
It is also pretty clear now that the current vaccines are less effective against the new variants—the problem is that the ‘pro vaccine side’ does not want to admit that, and ‘the other side’ does not want to admit that the right conclusion is that we need new vaccines (maybe the nasal onese—that would provide sterilizing immunity): https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-covid-capitulation?s=w
Speculation on the available info: They must have questioned him on that. Discovering that he was not entirely candid with them would be a good explanation of this announcement. And shadowbanning would be the most discoverable here.