The graph evolution system are of:
[a] easy to be stated
[b] Turing complete
Conway’s Game of Life also has the above two properties.
Yandong Zhang
Karma: 7
Such a great article! I thought the AlexNet that led to the recent AI break through could be viewed as a discontinuity too. The background and some statistics result are well summarized in below link.
A lesson from last 30 years AI development: data and computation power are the key factor of improvement.
Thus, IMPHO,,for obtaining a better model, the most reliable approach is to get more data.
Everybody wearing a respirator could be one of the equilibrium point of the social evolution under the COVID-19, though may be not the only one. Unfortunately, I did not figure other equilibrium point yet. To my best knowledge, nobody gives other end point of the social evolution in a rigors way.
Even (1),(2) and (3) were proven true in the future, it was not apocalyptic scenario. People only need to wear serious respirators while not at home. It was not a big deal in my opinion.
Can we reduce the issue of “we can’t efficiently compute that update” by adding sensors?
What if we could get more data ? —— if facing such type of difficulties, I would ask that question first.
Omicron Makes Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Obsolete
There is no evidence so far that vaccines are reducing infections from the fast-spreading variant.
By Luc Montagnier and Jed Rubenfeld
Jan. 9, 2022 5:20 pm ET
----WSJI did not believe the user of this website was really about reason, as this post was devoted greatly.
Should be smaller R0. However, I meant not to fix it. It took 22 months that CDC start considering to recommend N95 and some areas (Salt Lake city) starts giving free N95.
People who did not understand the richness,fastness, unpredictable, of COVID’s mution could not appreciate my conclusoin two years ago.
For knowing this result, u need not to have an “accurate” model with many dependence assumptions.
Clearly the Exponential function dominate the linear function (benefit of vaccines/re-infect immune) in UK.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1473752247376961543
With the speed of double 1-3 days, I did not believe other details/aspects played any significant role. Only the transmission control/observe has relationship with the true reality.
Omicron doubles in 1.5 to 3 days in areas. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-cases-doubling-15-3-days-areas-with-local-spread-who-2021-12-18/
Mathematically, the consequence caused by the transmission >>>>> death rate.
Let’s assume there were many COVID mutated variants. What is the best model for the average of the spreading path of all those mutations? It is the SIR model, as it has less dependency. More “accurate” models have more assumptions, hypothesis and depended conditions, which are not reliable. In brief, any other models looks more or less like the result of the SIR model. The difference cancels out.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1469723185084084225?s=20
Please check the calculation part. I wish the health system would not stress out by the omicron.
“the chance of contracting disease at all compared with those who are not vaccinated (~40-70% for Delta, reduced to maybe ~10-30% for Omicron);”
Do you have a link to the peer review papers about the above item?
“6 months ago I wrote about how 30-year-olds should basically go back to normal and no longer take many COVID precautions.”
Will the hospital system stress out again in many states because people did not control the transmission? We will see soon. I just did not understand that why so many people did not understand the power exponential functions.
Currently, the omicron doubles 3-4 days (Germany and British data). Let’s assume the vaccines reduce the severity into the swan flu level. Now, what will the swan flu that doubles in each 4 days will lead? Simple math will tell us, it is UNACCEPTABLE.
If 30s live as normal, the transmission will not be controlled and the health system will stress out even further.
It is not possible that 100% will get it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology
For training new graduates from computer science major, I often asked them to develop a simple website to predict the UP/DOWN probability of tomorrow’s SP index (close price), by using any machine learning model. Then, if the website reported a number that was very close 50%, I would say: the website worked well since the SP index was very close to random walk. “What is the meaning of the work!” Most of them would ask angrily. “50% visitors will be impressed by your website. “
I apologize if you feel the story is irrelevant. In my opinion, 50% prediction definitely is meaningful in many cases. It depends on the audience’s background. For example, if your model tell people, the probability of the disappearing of COVID-19 in tomorrow is 50%, we will be more than happy.