I think that’s my true rejection, in the following sense: If I saw a sensible formal epistemology underlying modesty and I saw people who advocated modesty going on to outperform myself and others, accomplishing great deeds through the strength of their diffidence, then, indeed, I would start paying very serious attention to modesty.
Outperformance can include the avoidance of errors.
Well, there’s 200 countries, so there are 199 experiments going on. But apart from that. no.