“Percentage of marriages that end in divorce” is an underspecified concept. There is only “percentage of marriages that end in divorce after n years”.
According to this NYT article, it is incredibly common to report (new divorces / new marriages) as the “% of marriages ending in divorce” – and this is misleading because it makes a decline in marriages look like an increase in the probability of divorce. The very large figures, like 50% or above, seem to be indeed reporting this figure.
You could adjust for changing demographics of course, but one would think that introduces some uncertainty into the measurement.
I phrased my comment clumsily as a reason to link to something that would clarify the underspecified comment of a “divorce rate”. It seems like 40% is a realistic figure for some countries after you do demographic adjustment, but, insofar as a higher figure is reported, it is because of a misunderstanding.
I will think of a way to clarify this claim, or delete it entirely.
“Percentage of marriages that end in divorce” is an underspecified concept. There is only “percentage of marriages that end in divorce after n years”.
According to this NYT article, it is incredibly common to report (new divorces / new marriages) as the “% of marriages ending in divorce” – and this is misleading because it makes a decline in marriages look like an increase in the probability of divorce. The very large figures, like 50% or above, seem to be indeed reporting this figure.
You could adjust for changing demographics of course, but one would think that introduces some uncertainty into the measurement.
I phrased my comment clumsily as a reason to link to something that would clarify the underspecified comment of a “divorce rate”. It seems like 40% is a realistic figure for some countries after you do demographic adjustment, but, insofar as a higher figure is reported, it is because of a misunderstanding.
I will think of a way to clarify this claim, or delete it entirely.