I feel like a lot of the angst about free will boils down to conflicting intuitions.
It seems like we live in a universe of cause and effect, thus all my actions/choices are caused by past events.
It feels like I get to actually make choices, so 1. obviously can’t be right.
The way to reconcile these intuitions is to recognize that yes, all the decisions you make are in a sense predetermined, but a lot of what is determining those decisions is who you are and what sort of thing you would do in a particular circumstance. You are making decisions, that experience is not invalidated by a fully deterministic universe. It’s just that you are who you are and you’ll make the decision that you would make.
I think the example with the lightbulbs and SAD is very important because it illustrates well that in areas that humanity is not prioritizing especially, one is much more justified in expecting civilizational inadequacy.
I think a large portion of the judgment of whether one should expect that inadequacy should be a function of how much work and money is being spent on a particular subject.