Maybe the “I love this” refers to an appreciation for the existence of a post like this one on LW, not the content (i.e., the child’s unusual and partially unsettling behavior) of this post; I do think a “reference to the post existing in the LW ecosystem” is a less probable scenario than “reference to the content of the post”. Anyway, I find the content somewhat unsettling, but appreciate that I saw a post like this one today on LW.
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Karma: 155
Minor point: I think it would be useful to have, at the top of the census, a box for people to click “I see this census, but don’t want to fill it out”. Such an option could help with understand what % of active users saw but didn’t fill out the census, which is information that, while I can’t immediately see how it is valuable, might be found to be valuable in the future.
I experience something similar. On some work days, I might rotating somewhat distractedly between tasks. In this state of task-rotation, I find that I am not very focused or motivated. However, when I formally decide that I am going to Do This Thing, And Only This Thing (where the “thing” is usually my most pressing obligation), I usually gain a moderate productivity boost and the quality of my work typically rises as well. There is a cost to making this decision, though, and that cost consists of creating the psychological state necessary to “focus up and decide”, which consists partially of taking a moment to ignore the nagging “false urgencies”, i.e. my other obligations.
Somewhat relevant forecasting question for those who are interested (soon-to-open):
This question resolves positive if the International Maritime Organization (IMO) puts forth regulation that increases the limit of sulphur content in the fuel oil used on board ships to the pre-2020 limit of 3.5%, or greater, i.e. at least 3.5%. Otherwise this question resolves negative. Metaculus admins in conjunction with the community will be consulted should any disputes concerning this question’s resolution arise over its lifetime.
The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.
This means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, over-reaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion; and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved, as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision. This latter element requires that, before the acceptance of an affirmative decision by the experimental subject, there should be made known to him the nature, duration, and purpose of the experiment; the method and means by which it is to be conducted; all inconveniences and hazards reasonably to be expected; and the effects upon his health or person, which may possibly come from his participation in the experiment.
The duty and responsibility for ascertaining the quality of the consent rests upon each individual who initiates, directs or engages in the experiment. It is a personal duty and responsibility which may not be delegated to another with impunity
Important to remember and stand by the Nuremberg Code in these contexts.
Thank you for this comment (sorry this Thank You was delayed; I came back here to add what I’ve added below, but realize that I hadn’t replied to you).
I came across this today: https://www.newsminimalist.com/
The Homepage:
This is another interesting use case of LLMs, this time for meaningful content sorting and tracking, and is helpful in a way different from how you utilized GPT-4 for my initial question. With some additional modification / development, perhaps LLMs can produce a site with all the features I indicated above, or at least something closer to them than https://www.newsminimalist.com/, which I view as a stepping stone. Anyway, I thought you might find the link / concept interesting!
I’m, as are most, familiar with Google Trends. What I’m interested is something more analytical than Google Trends. Maybe Google Trends would be closer to what I am imagining if it displayed and detailed how individual trends in aggregate constitute some portion of a larger historical event(s) playing out. For example, that Tucker Carlson is trending now might be a component of multiple other, larger phenomena unfolding. Also, beyond Google Trend’s measure of normalized search interest, I would be interested in seeing the actual numbers across social networks / platforms by token or related tokens. Again, my phrasing here may be poor, but I feel that Google Trends misses some level of cohesiveness with the trends it measures (maybe stated as “some inadequacy on part of Google Trends to integrate multiple trend histories into the larger picture”). Thank you for your comment.
[Question] Measures of Internet Virality and News Popularity
I asked it to give me a broad overview of measure theory. Then, I asked for it to provide me with a list of measure theory terms and their meanings. Then, I asked it to provide me some problems to solve. I haven’t entered an solutions yet, but upon doing so I would ask for it to evaluate my work.
Further on this last sentence, I have given it things I’ve written, including arguments, and have asked for it to play Devil’s Advocate or to help me improve my writing. I do not think I’ve been thorough in the examples I’ve given it, but its responses have been somewhat useful.
I imagine that many others have used GPT systems to help them evaluate and improve their writing, but, in my experience, I haven’t seen many people to use these systems to tutor them or keep track of their progress in learning something like measure theory.
I have (what may be) a simple question—please forgive my ignorance: Roughly speaking, how complex is this capability, i.e. writing Quines? Perhaps stated differently, how surprising is this feat? Thank you for posting about / bringing attention to this.
Strong agreement here. I find it unlikely that most of these details will still be concealed after 3 months or so, as it seems unlikely, combined, that no one will be able to infer some of these details or that there will be no leak.
Regarding the original thread, I do agree that OpenAI’s move to conceal the details of the model is a Good Thing, as this step is risk-reducing and creates / furthers a norm for safety in AI development that might be adopted elsewhere. Nonetheless, the information being concealed seems likely to become known soon, in my mind, for the general reasons I outlined in the previous paragraph.
Does anyone here have any granular takes what GPT-4′s multimodality might mean for the public’s adoption of LLMs and perception of AI development? Additionally, does anyone have any forecasts (1) for when this year (if at all) OpenAI will permit image output and (2) for when a GPT model will have video input & output capabilities?
...GPT-4 is a large multimodal model (accepting image and text inputs, emitting text outputs)...
These masks are also exceedingly uncommon in my Northeastern US town + the surrounding area; I think I’ve seen fewer than 5 people wearing one since late 2020. None of them were unusually coloured, either. In my experience, most establishments where masks can be purchased don’t carry these pouch-masks. It would be surprising and funny to see a whole group of people will yellow duckbill masks. Also, thank you for teaching me a new word (anatine “of or belonging to the surface-feeding ducks of Anas and closely related genera”). I wish your daughter a hasty recovery.
For those who may not have seen and would like to make a prediction (on Metaculus; current uniform median community prediction is 15%)
Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?
So why should you dress nice, even given this challenge? Because dressing nice makes your vibes better and people treat you better and are more willing to accommodate your requests.
This is a compelling argument to me, as someone who also had a fuzzy belief that “dressing nicely was a type of bullshit signaling game” (though perhaps with less conviction than you had).
It was around the time (several years ago) that I saw someone dressed like me (pants tucked into the socks and shirt tucked into the pants) that I had the realization that I would probably benefit from dressing better.
This realization was compelling enough to stoke me into initial action, which took the form of testing out new clothing that had passed the rough vibe check of my family and friends, who dress well and seem to care a decent amount about how they dress, but was not strong enough to keep me trying out new clothing.
I found that all the clothing I was trying on was too physically uncomfortable for me. There was also a minor psychological component as a well that I can only describe as a feeling of mismatch between my self-perception and the expected perception people would have of the clothed object before me in the mirror.
As a result of these “failed” experiments, I opted to wear flannels and make sure that the color of my socks matched the color of my pants; to me, this intervention was enough to get me above a vague status threshold and did not require much effort. With very few exceptions, I have not deviated from this dress code.
I cannot recall if I observed a difference in how I was treated after following change, which occurred several years ago.
Thank you writing this post Gordon. After reading and bookmarking it, I think I am marginally more likely to again attempt to dress better in the near-term future.
For the person who strong downvoted this, it would be helpful to me if you also shared which facets of the idea you found inadequate; the 5 or so people I’ve talked to online have generally supported this idea and found it interesting. I would appreciate some transparency on exactly why you believe the idea is a waste of time or resources, since I want to avoid wasting either of those. Thanks you.
Great piece.
Note: small thank you for the link https://www.etymonline.com/word/patience; I’ve never seen this site but I will probably have a lot of fun with it.
Thank you for your input on this. The idea is to show people something like the following image [see below] and give a few words of background on it before asking for their thoughts. I agree that this part wouldn’t be too helpful for getting people’s takes on the future, but my thinking is that it might be nice to see some people’s reactions to such an image. Any more thoughts on the entire action sequence?
Similar situation in my life...there are times when I am attempting to fall asleep and I realize suddenly that I am clenching my teeth and that there is considerable tension in my face. Beginning from my closed eyes down to my mouth I relax my facial muscles and I find it becomes easy for me to fall asleep.
In waking life too there are instances where I recognize my facial and bodily tension but I notice these situations less often than when I am trying to sleep. Being conscious of tension in my body and then addressing that tension when it occurs has on occasion made me calmer.
I am uncertain regarding the utility of more expensive interventions and or intensive investigations for alleviating tension, and have not really looked into it (but want to, somewhat).