A couple things: First, this is interesting and wild stuff.
Second: I seem to recall reading a bit more about the cold water in the ear thing. That it actually seems to act almost as the secret “force a hard reboot of the brain” button, and that it’s actually managed to get some people out of comas.
Third: to make it work, the water has to be REALLY cold, as I understand it. Not just cold.
Fourth: IIRC, when it’s actually done right, when whatever process that this triggers is, well, triggered… among other things, the recipient will vomit up everything in their stomach. Apparently this is some sort of automatic reaction. Anyone who’s trying this on themselves, among other things, should probably make sure someone else is near by and make sure to be face down and stuff so they don’t end up choking on their own vomit.
Actually… how is this an anthropic situation AT ALL?
I mean, wouldn’t it be equivalent to, say, gather 20 rational people (That understand PD, etc etc etc, and can certainly manage to agree to coordinate with each other) that are allowed to meet with each other in advance and discuss the situation...
I show up and tell them that I have two buckets of marbles, some of which are green, some of which are red
One bucket has 18 green and 2 red, and the other bucket has 18 red and 2 green.
I will (already have) flipped a logical coin. Depending on the outcome, I will use either one bucket or the other.
After having an opportunity to discuss strategy, they will be allowed to reach into the bucket without looking, pull out a marble, look at it, then, if it’s green choose if to pay and steal, etc etc etc. (in case it’s not obvious, the payout rules being equivalent to the OP)
As near as I can determine, this situation is entirely equivalent to the OP and is in no way an anthropic one. If the OP actually is an argument against anthropic updates in the presence of logical uncertainty… then it’s actually an argument against the general case of Bayesian updating in the presence of logical uncertainty, even when there’s no anthropic stuff going on at all!
EDIT: oh, in case it’s not obvious, marbles are not replaced after being drawn from the bucket.