I’m currently researching forecasting and epistemics as part of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.
ozziegooen(Ozzie Gooen)
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For what it’s worth, I think I prefer the phrase,
”Failing with style”
This situation seems really bizarre to me. I know they have multiple researchers in-house investigating these issues, like Joseph Carlsmith. I’m really curious what’s going on here.
I know they’ve previously had (what seemed to me) like talented people join and leave that team. The fact that it’s so small now, given the complexity and importance of the topic, is something I have trouble grappling with.
My guess is that there are some key reasons for this that aren’t obvious externally.
I’d assume that it’s really important for this team to become really strong, but would obviously flag that when things are that strange, it’s likely difficult to fix, unless you really understand why the situation is the way it is now. I’d also encourage people to try to help here, but I just want to flag that it might be more difficult than it might initially seem.