I am also an effective altruist and have been involved in the movement since 2012. I and others think that anti-aging and donating to SENS is probably a more important cause area than most EA cause areas (especially short-term ones) besides X-risk for the reasons below.
As a side note, from the longer (200+ comment) discussion about anti-aging from an EA perspective on the EA Facebook group here, the main objection that held weight seemed to be ‘bang for buck’, and is also addressed below.
In this piece: Why SENS Makes Sense and this piece: A general framework for evaluating aging research. Part 1: reasoning with Longevity Escape Velocity Emanuale Ascani evaluates the cost effectiveness of anti-aging, and donations to SENS Research Foundation using the EA criteria of scale, neglectedness and tractability. His estimation of cost-effectiveness of a SENS donation is $2.50 per 1000 quality-adjusted years life years saved, which dwarfs most other short-term cause areas in EA.
In terms of tractability and neglectedness, I’ll add a few more thoughts:
(1) Tractability
I understand that considering the models of aging (mice, flies, yeast etc.) alone might give the impression that these therapies may not translate to humans. However:
Human trials for aging specifically for three of the four approaches I mentioned are currently underway, but the lack of human data for these approaches ought not to undermine the scientific feasibility of, given results of other trials in humans. Data from human trials suggest many of these approaches have already been shown to reduce the rate of cognitive impairment, cancer, and many other features of aging in humans. Given these changes are highly correlated with biological aging, the evidence strongly suggests the capacity for the approaches mentioned to slow biological in humans.
In addition, in the past 2 years, human biological aging has already been reversed using calorie restriction, and with thymic rejuvenation, as measured by epigenetic (DNAm) aging. DNAm aging is fairly accurate in predicting time-to-death due to age-related conditions, so this is a promising finding for the field. Once more clinical trial data comes in, it will be easier to evaluate, but the preliminary evidence has demonstrated biological aging can be slowed in humans in the near future.
Regarding tractability, it’s also worth noting that the above has been made despite the research field receiving such comparatively little funding (explained in (2)).
Of course, part of the research in anti-aging is to develop more accurate biomarkers of aging (e.g. multi-omics biomarkers of aging), since it’s inherently a difficult process to measure. Funding in the field is required to develop better biomarkers of aging so that we can indeed provide more robust evidence that aging can be slowed in humans. Neverless the limited tools we have to measure aging (e.g. DNAm/Horvath’s clock, Levine’s clock) there has been sufficient proof-of-principle that aging in humans can be slowed to suggest that time-scales for anti-aging are fairly short, or could be with increased funding.
(2) Neglectedness
I understand that the number of longevity biotech companies may (wrongly) suggest that the field is well-funded. But this number is not an accurate proxy for the relative funding received by basic geroscience to develop cures for aging, from which these companies are spun-out of.
The crucial point is that although there is a lot of money in ‘aging’ in general (e.g. NIA’s budget of $3 billion), and a lot of private money to finance longevity biotech companies spun out of basic aging research laboratories, there is a pitifully small amount of money financing basic geroscience research to find therapies to treat aging. This is especially true when compared to any other biomedical field, such as cancer, or neurodegeneration, which receive 1-2 orders of magnitude greater funding (e.g. NCI has an annual budget of $6.5 billion, compared to $100 million for geroscience research). I think many EA’s assume academia is an efficient market that will self-correct to prioritise research with the greatest potential impact; but unfortunately, that’s not how things work due to the incentives in academia. For example, cancer researchers have no incentive to start investigating aging, since it’s outside the scope of their grant funding. Until the public realizes aging is a problem, and lobby governments to increase expenditure towards geroscience, the rate of progress remains comparatively slow, given what it could be.
To give some numbers: Less than 0.2% ($100 million) of the NIH’s $45 billion budget goes towards geroscience research to find cures for aging, even though the NIA has a budget of around $3 billion. Moreover, organisations such as SENS finance some of the best research in the field have even smaller budgets ($5-10 million) which is why private small donations can still have a significant impact.
Aubrey de Grey who has significant insight into the landscape of funding for anti-aging believes that $250-500 million over 10 years is required to kickstart the field sufficiently so that larger sources of funding will flow in. In most timelines, this will happen inevitably, but given 100,000 lives are lost per day until we reach longevity escape velocity, getting to these milestones as soon as possible is a key priority, and the numbers suggest doing so represents one of the most cost-effective cause areas.
Other comments:
(1) Timelines
Regarding timelines and predictions, I think regardless of whether the FDA approves senolytics by 2030 or not, which is primarily a question of bureaucracy and politics more than science, the more interesting question is do senolytics actually work to slow aging. I would put the probability at 90% that one or more type of senolytic or senotherapeutic compound extend healthy lifespan by 5 years or more on average in humans if taken from a young enough age, regardless of whether they sufficiently meet the endpoints for specific disease indications required for FDA approval.
(2) AI
I agree that AI, if it doesn’t kill us all will probably have a huge impact on solving aging. However, this doesn’t actually change my calculus as the importance of solving aging very much, given that most AI timelines imply millions or billions of people will most likely die of aging before aging is solved by AI, unless we have anti-aging drugs to keep as many people alive as possible in the meantime.
Developing anti-aging compounds ‘by hand’ without the help of AI may seem slow and inefficient, but remember that we don’t need to achieve negligible senescence before AI—we only need drugs that are sufficiently effective to bring as many people as possible to the point in time at which AI solves aging. For example, a drug or cocktail of therapies that extend life of all humans on Earth by 10 years essentially allows 10-years’ worth of people who would otherwise have died of aging (~400 million people) to potentially reach the point at which AI solves aging and hence, longevity escape velocity. From an EA perspective, this seems like an incredible amount of good, and far better than most other cause areas out there, barring x-risks like AI safety.
(3) Starry-eyed optimism
Current evidecne suggests curing in cancer is probably much harder than slowing aging, because you have to reverse the damage associated with aging (which predisposes to tumorogenesis) as well as kill of the cancer to restore a person to a state of health, since aging alters the tumor microenvironment in a way that causes cancer. Therefore I’m not sure how apt the analogy is.
An analogy that is often thrown around in anti-aging circles is that of flight, which had a remarkably short timeline, or the Apollo missions. David Wood in his book, The Abolition of Aging makes a good case for how anti-aging could follow a similar timeline to flight.
I agree that the LessWrong community can have a positive impact on the cryonics field by signing up for cryonics and direct more capital in to this extremely under-funded field. Cryonics is especially relevant for people older than 40 today who are much less likely to make it to longevity escape velocity.
However, I disagree that (1) there is barely anything people can do now to slow their aging and (2) there is barely anything that the average person can do to support the research and development of anti-aging therapies. I plan to write a separate post covering these points, but I’ll provide a few thoughts here.
Regarding (1), there are a multitude of actions you can take now to slow your aging and risk of age-related diseases (disclaimer: NOT a substitute for medical advice):
Non-pharmacological:
Exercise—attenuates many hallmarks of aging
Intermittent fasting—improves metabolic switching and cellular stress resistance
Maintain strong social ties—social relationships are a strong predictor of lifespan
Overcome depression, which accelerates biological aging
Optimize your circadian rhythm
Take a biological age test such as myDNAage or InsideTracker and monitor your age over time.
Pharmacological:
On the safer end (for younger people or people with a lower risk tolerance):
Metformin—calorie restriction mimetic that controls blood sugar
Quercetin—anti-aging flavenoid that acts as a senolytic
Resveratrol—sirtuin enzyme activator and calorie restriction mimetic
Vitamin D—blood tested to optimize, ideally 2000IU per day
Vitamin B12 - as many people are deficient
On the more extreme end (for older people or people with a higher risk tolerance):
Rapamycin—an mTOR inhibitor that attenuates senescence
NAD-boosters such as NMN and NR—enhancers of stem cell function
Dasatinib—a senolytic usually used in combination with quercetin
In my cupboard at home, I have a bunch of these pills, as do other people involved in this field who are involved in this research. If you watch interviews from Harvard aging researcher David Sinclair, you will see he takes these supplements, as do many of his millions of followers. These are probably a good starting point given Sinclair is one of the most knowledgeable and researchers in the field.
Ultimately, much or all of the above strategies will be superseded by superior anti-aging technologies in the future (gene therapies, nanotechnologies etc.) but they are a good starting point for increasing longevity and bringing more awareness to the field.
A nice article about a 32-year old biohacker who spent $200k on biohacking his health based on the research is here.
Regarding (2), there are many ways to contribute to the field:
Become a Lifespan.io hero (subscriber)
Donate to SENS Research Foundation
Learn more about the field and discuss it with others, to increase public awareness of the field to help increase:
Government expenditure in geroscience research, which is a crucial bottleneck
Larger private donations to organizations like SENS
Financing of longevity biotech startups
The above are important actions since funding into the basic geroscience research is a key rate-limiting step in progressing the field. There is a fair amount of money to finance the longevity biotech companies, but funding for geroscience is pitifully small—less than 0.2% ($100 million) of the NIH’s $45 billion budget, even though the NIA for example, has a budget of around $3 billion. Moreover, organisations such as SENS finance some of the best research in the field have even smaller budgets ($5-10 million) which is why private small donations can still have a significant impact.