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HoldenKarnofsky

Karma: 6,917

Thoughts on the Sin­gu­lar­ity In­sti­tute (SI)

HoldenKarnofsky11 May 2012 4:31 UTC
329 points
1,274 comments29 min readLW link

Dis­cus­sion with Nate Soares on a key al­ign­ment difficulty

HoldenKarnofsky13 Mar 2023 21:20 UTC
250 points
38 comments22 min readLW link

We’re Not Ready: thoughts on “paus­ing” and re­spon­si­ble scal­ing policies

HoldenKarnofsky27 Oct 2023 15:19 UTC
199 points
33 comments8 min readLW link

AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined

HoldenKarnofsky9 Jun 2022 15:50 UTC
170 points
42 comments17 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

Non­profit Boards are Weird

HoldenKarnofsky23 Jun 2022 14:40 UTC
154 points
26 comments20 min readLW link1 review
(www.cold-takes.com)

Re­ply to Eliezer on Biolog­i­cal Anchors

HoldenKarnofsky23 Dec 2021 16:15 UTC
150 points
46 comments15 min readLW link

All Pos­si­ble Views About Hu­man­ity’s Fu­ture Are Wild

HoldenKarnofsky3 Sep 2021 20:19 UTC
146 points
37 comments8 min readLW link1 review

How might we al­ign trans­for­ma­tive AI if it’s de­vel­oped very soon?

HoldenKarnofsky29 Aug 2022 15:42 UTC
139 points
55 comments45 min readLW link1 review

Learn­ing By Writing

HoldenKarnofsky22 Feb 2022 15:50 UTC
133 points
12 comments10 min readLW link3 reviews
(www.cold-takes.com)

The Wicked Prob­lem Experience

HoldenKarnofsky2 Mar 2022 17:50 UTC
124 points
6 comments9 min readLW link1 review
(www.cold-takes.com)

Why We Can’t Take Ex­pected Value Es­ti­mates Liter­ally (Even When They’re Un­bi­ased)

HoldenKarnofsky18 Aug 2011 23:34 UTC
123 points
253 comments17 min readLW link

Ideal gov­er­nance (for com­pa­nies, coun­tries and more)

HoldenKarnofsky5 Apr 2022 18:30 UTC
108 points
63 comments14 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

The Track Record of Fu­tur­ists Seems … Fine

HoldenKarnofsky30 Jun 2022 19:40 UTC
91 points
25 comments12 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

A Play­book for AI Risk Re­duc­tion (fo­cused on mis­al­igned AI)

HoldenKarnofsky6 Jun 2023 18:05 UTC
90 points
41 comments14 min readLW link

Nearcast-based “de­ploy­ment prob­lem” analysis

HoldenKarnofsky21 Sep 2022 18:52 UTC
85 points
2 comments26 min readLW link

What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?

HoldenKarnofsky28 Feb 2023 17:40 UTC
80 points
21 comments2 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

AI strat­egy nearcasting

HoldenKarnofsky25 Aug 2022 17:26 UTC
79 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Spread­ing mes­sages to help with the most im­por­tant century

HoldenKarnofsky25 Jan 2023 18:20 UTC
75 points
4 comments18 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

Suc­cess with­out dig­nity: a nearcast­ing story of avoid­ing catas­tro­phe by luck

HoldenKarnofsky14 Mar 2023 19:23 UTC
74 points
8 comments15 min readLW link

This Can’t Go On

HoldenKarnofsky18 Sep 2021 23:50 UTC
73 points
55 comments7 min readLW link2 reviews