Thanks, but that proof doesn’t work for the formulation of Occam’s Razor that I was talking about.
For example, if I have a boolean-output function, there are three “simplest possible” (2 bit long) minimum hypotheses as to what it is, before I see the evidence: [return 0], [return 1], and [return randomBit()]. But a “more complex” (longer than 2 bit) hypothesis, like [on call #i to function, return i mod 2] can’t be represented as being equivalent to [[one of the previous hypotheses] AND [something else]] so the conjunction rule doesn’t apply.
I think the conjunction-rule proof does work for the “minimum entities” formulation, but that one’s deeply problematic because, among other things, it assigns a higher prior probability to divine explanations (of complex systems) than physics-based ones.
Hi, everyone.
I’m currently finishing a first degree in CS, and I’ve been reading LW for a few months now (since June). I’ve read through most of the Sequences and check the front page of the site for anything that looks interesting whenever I want to put off doing something, which is usually several times a day. I also need to get round to finishing Godel, Escher, Bach some time (I’m kinda slow).
I am, at the moment, a terrible rationalist—my goals aren’t even clearly defined, let alone acted on, and I have a strong background in tournament debating, which allows me to argue myself into believing whatever I feel like believing at any given moment. I think I’m getting better at that, but of course my own opinion is almost worthless as evidence on the subject.
On the other hand, reading this site (especially Yudkowsky’s stuff) at least made me stop being religious. I like to think I’d have got there in the end anyway, but seeing as I really didn’t enjoy it, I thank everyone here for pulling me out sooner rather than later.
Quick question: Does anyone know of a formal from-first-principles justification for Occam’s Razor (assigning prior probabilities in inverse proportion to the length of the model in universal description language)? Because I can’t find one, and frankly, if you can’t prove something, it’s probably not true. I’d rather not base my entire thought process on things that probably aren’t true.
Hoping to be able to contribute, Ezekiel
PS Good grief, there’s an average of one introducing-yourself post every couple of days! Why the heck are all the front-page articles written by the same handful of people?