If the model is sufficiently good at deception, there will be few to no differential adversarial examples.
We’re talking about an intermediate model with an understanding of the base objective but no goal. If the model doesn’t have a goal yet, then it definitely doesn’t have a long-term goal, so it can’t yet be deceptively aligned.
Also, at this stage of the process, the model doesn’t have goals yet, so the number of differential adversarial examples is unique for each potential proxy goal.
the vastly larger number of misaligned goals
I agree that there’s a vastly larger number of possible misaligned goals, but because we are talking about a model that is not yet deceptive, the vast majority of those misaligned goals would have a huge number of differential adversarial examples. If training involved a general goal, then I wouldn’t expect many, if any, proxies to have a small number of differential adversarial examples in the absence of deceptive alignment. Would you?
Thanks for pointing that out! My goal is to highlight that there are at least 3 different sequencing factors necessary for deceptive alignment to emerge:
Goal directedness coming before an understanding of the base goal
Long-term goals coming before or around the same time as an understanding of the base goal
Situational awareness coming before or around the same time as an understanding of the base goal
The post you linked to talked about the importance of sequencing for #3, but it seems to assume that goal directedness will come first (#1) without discussion of sequencing. Long-term goals (#2) are described as happening as a result of an inductive bias toward deceptive alignment, and sequencing is not highlighted for that property. Please let me know if I missed anything in your post, and apologies in advance if that’s the case.
Do you agree that these three property development orders are necessary for deception?