This graph seems to match the rise of the internet. Here’s my alternate hypothesis: Most people are irrational, and now it’s more reasonable to call them crazy/stupid/fools because they have much greater access to knowledge that they are refusing/unable to learn from. I think people are just about as empathetic as they used to be, but incorrect people are less reasonable in their beliefs.
joseph_c
Could I point out that avoiding head injuries might not be the only reason you wouldn’t want your children to play football? You might also not want your child to adopt the culture that a lot of high school football teams have (partying, not caring about school, self-centered), which can happen quite easily if they’re around football kids 3 hours/day 6 days/week.
A few things to note:
GPT-4′s release was delayed by ~8 months because they wanted to do safety testing before releasing it. If you take this into account your graph looks much less steep.
The employees at OpenAI know about prediction markets.
They also have incentives to manipulate them to look like GPT-5 will come out later than it actually will. They don’t want to set off an AI arms race.
I think most people view “All people are equal” as a pronouncement of a moral belief they hold, not as a statement of fact. When they say, “All people are equal”, they mean they believe “all people should be treated equally”, or “everyone should have to obey the same laws” or “everyone’s needs have equal importance”.
This moral pronouncement is also consistent with a utilitarian pronouncing “All people are equal to me”, as in that all people’s lives hold equal weight in his utility function.
I know you’re joking, but I’d like to clarify that Jesus actually said “Let he who is without sin cast the first stone,” in case some future archeologist who doesn’t know anything about 21st century religions uncovers this article. Nukes didn’t exist in the first century A.D.
I remember reading about a startup that is basically using LLMs to let you navigate through websites quicker. I’ll edit this comment if I remember what it is.
Why did you decide to only use rotation matrices instead of any invertible matrix? If you’re trying to find a new basis to work in, wouldn’t any invertible matrix work just as well?
(To Policymakers and Machine Learning Researchers)
Building a nuclear weapon is hard. Even if one manages to steal the government’s top secret plans, one still need to find a way to get uranium out of the ground, find a way to enrich it, and attach it to a missile. On the other hand, building an AI is easy. With scientific papers and open source tools, researchers are doing their utmost to disseminate their work.
It’s pretty hard to hide a uranium mine. Downloading TensorFlow takes one line of code. As AI becomes more powerful and more dangerous, greater efforts need to be taken to ensure malicious actors don’t blow up the world.
Maybe try controlling for age? I think young people are both less likely to have signed up for cryonics (because they have less money and are less likely to die) and also have higher probabilities of cryonics working for them (because cryonics will improve by the time they need it).
In case it’s useful for others, a more direct link is https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/planecrash/episodes/How-to-Read-Glowfic-e21k2pq.
I noticed that you listed “Salamander” as rationalist/rationalist adjacent fiction. I’ve never heard of it before, and Google doesn’t seem to know either. What is this?
The current premise is that, by locally monitoring factors, such as the MAC and IP address a user is connected to, we can prevent others signing onto the same device. Essentially, one account may be accessed via multiple devices, however, only one account may be accessed per device. In theory, this should minimise the incentive to create multiple accounts, as there is presently no explicit way to circumvent the issue.
Why can’t someone spoof their MAC/IP address? Or even easier, buy two devices?
Have you heard about pseudoentropy? The pseudoentropy of a distribution is equal to the highest entropy among all computationally indistinguishable distributions. I think this might be similar to what you’re looking for.
Do you still live in Utah?
Did your family cut you off?
Do you know about [r/exmormon](https://old.reddit.com/r/exmormon/)?
The trick here is that both equations contain which is the hardest to calculate, and that number drops out when we divide the equations.
You have a couple typos here. The first centered equation should not have a $P(\bar H H | X)$ but instead have $P(\bar H | X)$, and the inline expression should be $P(D | X)$, not $P(D | H)$.
Lying is a social lubricant. The classic defence of lying here- if someone asks you: “Does my bum look too big in this dress?”, you don’t want to be honest and respond: “Yes, you look like a whale who has swallowed another, much larger whale.”
That’s not being honest—that’s just being mean. If you really want to present an uncharitable view of honesty, maybe at least make the statements you claim to be honest actually true? For example, the response “No, it’s your fat that does it,” is also rather unkind but has the advantage of maybe being true.
Fact check: Mormons don’t go on missionaries until they are at least 18 for men and 19 for women.
Missionaries can be single men between the ages of 18 and 25, single women over the age of 19 or retired couples. Missionaries work with a companion of the same gender during their mission, with the exception of couples, who work with their spouse. Single men serve missions for two years and single women serve missions for 18 months.
See https://news-pg.churchofjesuschrist.org/topic/missionary-program.
Also, ever since the most recent transfer of power, Mormons have decided they want to be called “members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints” instead of “Mormons”.
When referring to Church members, the terms “members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints,” “Latter-day Saints,” “members of the Church of Jesus Christ” and “members of the restored Church of Jesus Christ” are preferred. We ask that the term “Mormons” and “LDS” not be used.
See https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/style-guide.
Also, could I seriously advise not mimicking the Mormon missionary program? Mormon missionaries are basically cut off from everyone and everything except the Mormon church. Until about three years ago, they weren’t even allowed to call home more than twice a year. Apparently it’s also so stressful that about half of them return home early, where they’re further shamed for not meeting the exacting expectations of their church. It’s basically human trafficking in the name of religion. You can read all kinds of mission horror stories on (the admittedly terribly biased) https://www.reddit.com/r/exmormon.
Your outline has a lot of beliefs you expect your students to walk away with, but basically zero skills. If I was one of your prospective students, this would look a lot more like cult indoctrination than a genuine course where I would learn something.
What skills do you hope your students walk away with? Do you hope that they’ll know how to avoid overfitting models? That they’ll know how to detect trojaned networks? That they’ll be able to find circuits in large language models? I’d recommend figuring this out first, and then working backwards to figure out what to teach.
Also, don’t underestimate just how smart smart 15- and 16-year-olds can be. At my high school, for example, there were at least a dozen students who knew calculus at this age, and many more who knew how to program. And this was just a relatively normal public high school.
Well, what are your actual steps? Or is this just advertisement?