Would it be fair to say that any historical data on successful scientists/mathematicians will be over represented by firstborns due to primogeniture inheritance laws and customs? Historically those involved in the sciences mainly had to be independently wealthy and being a first born would tend to help with that with those born after more likely to have to work for a living. Maybe famous historical lawyers would tend to be under represented by firstborns?
I’d expect this to be a fairly large selection effect similar in size to the Less Wrong survey but presumably caused by a different mechanism.
Possibly a data set which would have more bearing on the question of birth order effects in modern times would be Fields medal, Abel prize, Turing award, Nobel prizes in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine and Economics in the last 30 years or so—I don’t have a great feel for how long ago the primogeniture inheritance thingy stopped being relevant but given an average Nobel laureate age of 59 this would mean people born since ~1930. These might be easier to find data on than Thales of Miletus too!!
Very interesting.
I think there may also be a Nash equilibrium with a mix of all 4 Bots, for a fairly small band of possible epsilon values.
d = 1 − 3e
f = 1⁄2
c = e
p = 2e − 1⁄2,
( ¼ < e < 1⁄3)
I haven’t proved this is a Nash equilibrium vs any modal agent, maybe you can.
This is unstable but I expect an evolution sim would obtain an oscillating pattern similar to the c,f,p equilibrium you find. In fact, when e = 1⁄3 this new equilibrium is the same as your original one.
Expected utility is 1+2e and so is less good than c,f,p for allowed epsilon values.