Did Eitan become a goyish Ethan midstory? Or are those two different characters?
Sabine thinks it’s both.
I use ‘light cone’ to point at ‘something which cannot ever conceivably casually affect anything in our present or future’. I don’t know if the light-cone concept generalizes to the Everett QM branches; if not, the substitute ‘anything which is in principle unknowable’.
My naive reaction is that this feels entirely too galaxy brained by about 210. If you start getting extremely counterintuitive results by adding entities from outside your lightcone, stop adding entities outside your lightcone. They’re unknowable. They’re not morally relevant.
I’m only 65% confident in this, and I haven’t done a deep dive into infinite ethics, but I still haven’t seen any argument for why things that can never be known are morally relevant.
Fair point. @ejacob, please play more hanabai with this person and report abuse statistics : D
Amazing. This is the best thing I’ve read all week. How do I subscribe to your newsletter? When is the novelization coming out?
Even if the meta-game is strictly (or just largely) cooperative, I think there could still be a dynamic where someone plays poorly or ambiguously, and then gets off on thinking that the other players were the ones in the wrong. It’s a way to gain self-regard.
Normally, I would think this is an unlikely strategy for someone to take, but if you see someone who’s been shitting on other people for weeks, it does raise the question: what are you getting out of this?
I glanced at the player’s recent activity: it contained two full pages of the player writing negative comments about people with whom he/she had played Hanabi, stretching back weeks. It struck me as impressive that one can consistently fail at communicating and yet insist that they are communicating correctly.
Or, alternatively, the game this person was actually playing was: I’m going to try and gain status and/or self-regard by denigrating others. Perhaps with a helping of: kek kek kek troll troll troll.
Is your logic that releasing this heinous volun into the public is more likely to pressure FB to do something about this? Because if so, I’m not sure that LW is a forum with enough public spotlight to generate pressure. OTOH, I imagine some percentage of readers here aren’t well-aligned but are looking for informational edge, in which case it’s possible this does more harm than good?
I’m not super-confident in this model—eg, it also seems entirely possible to me that lots of FB security engineers read the site and one or more will be shouting ZOMG! any moment over this..
That’s really cool. Thanks for the pointer!
How do phages interact with the host immune system? My naive model is the immune system would regard them as an infection and start to suppress.
“Honesty is reached through the doorway of grief and loss. Where we cannot go in our mind, our memory, or our body is where we cannot be straight with another, with the world, or with our self. The fear of loss, in one form or another, is the motivation behind all conscious and unconscious dishonesties: all of us are afraid of loss, in all its forms, all of us, at times, are haunted or overwhelmed by the possibility of a disappearance, and all of us therefore, are one short step away from dishonesty. Every human being dwells intimately close to a door of revelation they are afraid to pass through. Honesty lies in understanding our close and necessary relationship with not wanting to hear the truth.
“The ability to speak the truth is as much the ability to describe what it is like to stand in trepidation at this door, as it is to actually go through it and become that beautifully honest spiritual warrior, equal to all circumstances, we would like to become. Honesty is not the revealing of some foundational truth that gives us power over life or another or even the self, but a robust incarnation into the unknown unfolding vulnerability of existence, where we acknowledge how powerless we feel, how little we actually know, how afraid we are of not knowing and how astonished we are for the generous measure of loss that is conferred upon even the most average life.
“Honesty is grounded in humility and indeed in humiliation, and in admitting exactly where we are powerless. Honesty is not found in revealing the truth, but in understanding how deeply afraid of it we are. To become honest is in effect to become fully and robustly incarnated into powerlessness. Honesty allows us to live without not knowing. We do not know the full story, we do not know where we are in the story; we do not know who is at fault or who will carry the blame in the end. Honesty is not a weapon to keep loss and heartbreak at bay, honesty is the outer diagnostic of our ability to come to ground in reality, the hardest attainable ground of all, the place where we actually dwell, the living, breathing frontier where there is no realistic choice between gain or loss.”- David Whyte, from a recent episode of Harris’ Making Sense podcast.
This is air launch—using a balloon is just one variant. All of the schemes I’ve seen seem to have fairly small payloads, I assume the trade-offs don’t work well above some threshold.
The most recent episode of the 80k podcast had Andy Weber on it. He was the US Assistant Secretary of Defense, “responsible for biological and other weapons of mass destruction”.
Towards the end of the episode he casually drops quite the bomb:
Well, over time, evidence for natural spread hasn’t been produced, we haven’t found the intermediate species, you know, the pangolin that was talked about last year. I actually think that the odds that this was a laboratory-acquired infection that spread perhaps unwittingly into the community in Wuhan is about a 50% possibility… And we know that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was doing exactly this type of research [gain of function research]. Some of it — which was funded by the NIH for the United States — on bat Coronaviruses. So it is possible that in doing this research, one of the workers at that laboratory got sick and went home. And now that we know about asymptomatic spread, perhaps they didn’t even have symptoms and spread it to a neighbor or a storekeeper. So while it seemed an unlikely hypothesis a year ago, over time, more and more evidence leaning in that direction has come out. And it’s wrong to dismiss that as kind of a baseless conspiracy theory. I mean, very, very serious scientists like David Relman from Stanford think we need to take the possibility of a laboratory accident seriously.
The included link is to a statement from the US Embassy in Georgia, which to me seems surprisingly blunt, calling out the CCP for obfuscation, and documenting events at the WIV, going so far as to speculate that they were doing bio-weapons research there.
A couple of days ago I came across this deposition to the “German Corona Extra-Parliamentary Inquiry Committee”, by Dr. Vanessa Schmidt-Kruger, who describes herself as “a cell biologist and my specialist field is the functional characterisation and elucidation of proteins”.
She enumerates a range of concerns with the BioNTech vaccine, including purity; toxicity of lipid nanoparticles; dosing and long-term immune effects. There is an almost throw-away comment in there to the effect of: ”...it has also been found that when the LNPs are transported in the blood then thromboses can occur, or haemolysis – haemolysis means the sudden dissolution of erythrocytes, i.e. red blood cells, this causes hypoxia.”
I’m not in a position to evaluate any of this—the deposition is quite long, and technical (altho note that the second half of the doc is just the German version). The presentation.. somewhat twinges my “this might be crackpot” aesethetic sense (as per naming-the-nameless), but I can’t dismiss it out of hand based on that.
O! So excited to see this—I haven’t had a chance to more than quickly skim, but will dig in after work tonight. But: what about recent detection of an external field effect??? Chae et al recently found “the EFE is individually detected at 8σ to 11σ [!!] in“golden” galaxies subjected to exceptionally strong external fields, while it is not detected in exceptionally isolated galaxies...”
It seems clear from multiple lines that there IS dark matter, but this also seems like strong evidence for MOND?? DO WE HAVE BOTH????
Their sample size isn’t huge, and they call for more work to increase the confidence: “the EFE is statistically detected at more than 4σ from a blind test of 153 SPARC rotating galaxies, giving a mean value of the external field consistent with an independent estimate from the galaxies’ environments, and we detect a systematic downward trend in the weak gravity part of the radial acceleration relation at the right acceleration predicted by the EFE of the MOND modified gravity,” but even the 4σ results seem pretty compelling, no?
No, worst case is the entire developmental trajectory of infants and children might also get messed up. If gestation in martian G isn’t safe, at what point post delivery is Martian G safe?
Also, on a practical level: can you imagine how unpleasant being stuck in a centrifuge for nine months while pregnant would be?
The French Revolution was… contemporary with the American Rev, so, around 1770s. I believe there was some sort of retrenchment by the 1880, so perhaps France was “Revolutionary” for on the order of 5 − 80 years (70% certainty).
Massive changes to the legal system and other social institutions seem likely to negatively affect GDP in the short term, with the possibility of positively affecting it in the longer term.
I’d give 40% that the signal is negative for at least a generation, perhaps longer.
I’ve reached the same conclusion—it’s likely going to have to be asteroids, not planets.