For Bayes Probability, Bayes rule is a great introduction. Yudkowsky’s intro also endorses this one.
aysajan
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[Question] Framing Practicum: Incentive
The Generalized Product Rule
The Bullwhip Effect
[Question] Personal Advice/Request: Can I be your apprentice?
[Question] Framing Practicum: Selection Incentive
Meaning of Words—An Exercise for Active Thinking
A Short Note on My Value Notion
Framing Practicum: Dynamic Programming
Accidental Optimizers
My Bitcoin Thesis @2022 - Part 1
Value Notion—Questions to Ask
I disagree. The key factor to observe bullwhip effect is no coordination among players. For example, retailer does not share consumer demand information with the wholesaler, and the wholesaler does not share demand information with the distributor, etc.
Thank you for your well-thought comment. One of the desiderata used to derive the original product rule is to use real numbers to represent the degrees of plausibility. So, it will be very interesting to see if the result still holds if we relax it to be a complex numbers.
I’ve taken the test not long ago and I agree it is quite informative. One concern I always have with these kinds of tests is that we tend to select options (at least in some cases) that highlight who we want to be rather than who we really are. I would like to know how this kind of bias is reduced.
The main argument here is that at its current state, you have to invest not-so-small capital in order to be part of the bitcoin production system. If no one puts capital, no bitcoin will be created. In this regard, bitcoin is different from all other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (Yes, Ethereum also uses POW but there new blocks can be created much faster with less capital intensity). This has nothing to do with 21 million cap or scarcity.
Corrected. Thank you for pointing them out.
“what would really be useful is the valuation of a cryptocurrency relative to fields outside of it.” Yes, this is something I want to explore more as part of the value of cryptocurrency in general. I am also aware of these types of projects, at least in the mission statement. But I really don’t know if that is really something they want to do, or it is purely for the sake of attracting more investors.
I feel like the question of “what is the value of a cryptocurrency” should be different from “what is the value of cryptocurrency in general?”. and I suspect that the answer will extend to beyond cryptocurrency.
For instance, a computer’s CPU is measured in GHz, which is a proxy for the number of calculations the CPU can run per second. So it is about one billion (109) calculations per second. Now let’s suppose the number of calculations your program needs to run is 106, then you can make a Fermi estimation about the program’s run time as 106109=10−3, which is millisecond. Usually we would expect the actual run time will be within an order of magnitude of this estimation.