I took the survey
Anders_H
Is Caviar a Risk Factor For Being a Millionaire?
Effect heterogeneity and external validity in medicine
Causal Inference Sequence Part 1: Basic Terminology and the Assumptions of Causal Inference
Sequence Announcement: Applied Causal Inference
Counterfactual outcome state transition parameters
Link: Evidence-Based Medicine Has Been Hijacked
Shall we count the living or the dead?
Prediction Markets are Confounded—Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy
Post-doctoral Fellowships at METRICS
As someone who gave up a career in medicine in order get a doctoral degree in Causal Inference, I am half-upvoting this, because I really want it to be true :-)
I originally trained as a medical doctor, but came to the conclusion that what I was doing had almost no value on utilitarian grounds. Sure, once in a while you feel good about helping a patient, but really, if you weren’t working that day, somebody else would have done the same thing. I decided I would rather have my one-in-a-thousand chance of coming up with an original idea with real impact, instead of spending the rest of my career as a doctor, where my utilitarian impact would almost certainly be negligible.
I came to the Harvard School of Public Health intent on going into academic Global Health, but after I took an introductory course on applied causal inference with some basic DAG theory, that all changed. Partly, this was because I recognized the importance of Causal DAGs from reading Less Wrong. I ended up staying at HSPH to get a doctoral degree with some of the leading researchers in the field; this even allowed me to take a course that Ilya was a Teaching Assistant for (I ended up being a TA for the same course the following year)
Currently, my career plan is to get a faculty job at some school of public health, where I see my mission as taking part in a “reboot” of epidemiology and comparative effectiveness research, to cleanse it of the cargo cult science and magical thinking that is currently all too common, and train investigators in rigorous causal reasoning. I honestly believe that this could have a major utilitarian impact, because in the absence of randomized trials, proper causal reasoning about observational data is the only way we can learn how to make better clinical decisions that optimize patient outcomes,
( Hopefully, if I play my cards right, this career choice will also have the added benefit of giving me sufficient status in the medical community to get a real discussion started on some of the most horrific things that doctors do to patients)
This note is for readers who are unfamiliar with The_Lion:
This user is a troll who has been banned multiple times from Less Wrong. He is unwanted as a participant in this community, but we are apparently unable to prevent him from repeatedly creating new accounts. Administrators have extensive evidence for sockpuppetry and for abuse of the voting system. The fact that The_Lion’s comment above is heavily upvoted is almost certainly entirely due to sockpuppetry. It does not reflect community consensus
I also have an objective. My objective is this: At least somewhere on the internet, there should exist a community where people can have real discussion, ie, a dispassionate exchange of priors, likelihood ratios and arguments. It will not be possible for me to achieve my objective if participants turn discussions into wars. It will also not work if people with certain views feel unwelcome, or scared to vocalize their views.
Yes, he may have been acting rationally, in the same way that somebody who defects in Prisoner’s Dilemma acts rationally. In fact, it would be rational for anyone to use unacceptable tactics in order for their side to “win” the discussion. However, the continued existence of Less Wrong as a rationalist community depends on people cooperating in this game. Moloch will certainly kill the rationalist spirit if we don’t punish defectors.
Sometimes it is rational to punish defectors even if the defectors themselves are acting rationally. I do however understand that this is a difficult trade-off, as we have seen strong evidence that there are people who are willing to participate and have high-quality insights that are not easily obtained elsewhere, but who refuse to play by the rules.
I am going to publicly call for banning user VoiceOfRa for the following reasons:
(1) VoiceOfRa is almost certainly the same person as Eugene_Nier and Azathoth123. This is well known in rationality circles; many of us have been willing to give him a second chance under a new username because he usually makes valuable contributions.
(2) VoiceOfRa almost certainly downvote bombed the user who made the grandparent comment, including downvoting some very uncontroversial and reasonable comments.
(3) As I have said before in this context, downvote abuse is very clear evidence of being mindkilled. It is also a surefire way to ensure you never change your mind, because you discourage people who disagree with you from taking part in the discussion and therefore prohibit yourself from updating on their information. I do not understand how someone who genuinely believes in epistemic rationality could think this is a good strategy.
I will also note that I was the first person to publicly call out Eugine_Nier under his previous username, Azathoth123, at http://lesswrong.com/lw/l0g/link_quotasmicroaggressionandmeritocracy/bd4o . Like I said in that comment, I continue to believe he is a valuable contributor to the community. Like many other people, I have been willing to give him a second chance under his new username. However, this was conditional on completely ceasing and desisting with the downvote abuse. And yes, any downvoting of old comments made in a different context is a clear example of abuse.
The following links provide background material for readers who are unfamiliar with Eugine_Nier and the context in which I am requesting a ban:
http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/kbk/meta_policy_for_dealing_with_users/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/kfq/moderator_action_eugine_nier_is_now_banned_for/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/ld0/psa_eugine_nier_evading_ban/
Edited to add: If I see clear evidence that VoiceOfRa is not Eugine_Nier, or that he was not behind the most recent downvote abuse, I will retract this message and publicly apologize
- 2 Dec 2015 3:03 UTC; 22 points) 's comment on Weirdness at the wiki by (
- 3 Jan 2016 17:46 UTC; 2 points) 's comment on Why You Should Be Public About Your Good Deeds by (
I don’t believe you can obtain an understanding of the idea that “correlation does not imply causation” from even a very deep appreciation of the material in Statistics 101. These courses usually make no attempt to define confounding, comparability etc. If they try to define confounding, they tend to use incoherent criteria based on changes in the estimate. Any understanding is almost certainly going to have to originate from outside of Statistics 101; unless you take a course on causal inference based on directed acyclic graphs it will be very challenging to get beyond memorizing the teacher’s password
You will probably want to edit the title to add the qualifier “in mice”. Results from mouse models are notorious for not generalizing to humans. That said, this looks interesting; thanks for bringing it to my attention. I definitely hope this research gets all the funding it needs, it is certainly a bet worth taking even if the chance of payoff is low.
As the token epidemiologist in the Less Wrong community, I should probably comment on this.
The utility of learning epidemiology will depend critically on what you mean by the word:
If you interpret “epidemiology” as the modern theory of causal inference and causal reasoning applied to health and medicine, then learning epidemiology is very useful, so much so that I believe that a course on causal reasoning should be required in high school. If you are interested in learning this material, my advisor is writing a book on Causal Inference in Epidemiology, part of which is freely available at http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/miguel-hernan/causal-inference-book/ . For more mathematically oriented readers, Pearl’s book is also great.
If you interpret “epidemiology” to mean the material you will learn when taking a course called “Epidemiology”, or to mean the methods used in most papers published in epidemiologic journals (ie endless Cox models, p-hacking, model selection algorithms and incoherent reasoning about confounding), then what you will get is a broken epistemology with negative utility. Stay far away from this—people who don’t have the time to learn proper causal reasoning are better off with the heuristic “if it is not randomized, don’t trust it” . This happens to be the mindset of most clinicians, and appropriately so.
Last week, I gave a presentation at the Boston meetup, about using causal graphs to understand bias in the medical literature. Some of you requested the slides, so I have uploaded them at http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/huitfeldt/files/using_causal_graphs_to_understand_bias_in_the_medical_literature.pptx
Note that this is intended as a “Causality for non-majors” type presentation. If you need a higher level of precision, and are able the follow the maths, you would be much better off reading Pearl’s book.
(Edited to change file location)
I completed the survey (and learned surprising things about my digit ratio)