For the probability of a die coming up “6” eight times out of nine, I get about 1 in 200 thousand, not 1 in 2 million. If the die coming up anything (e.g., “1″ or “3”) eight times out of nine would have been similarly notable, I get 1 in 37 thousand.
Why do you override the urge to see dark lords of the martrix in these sorts of coincidences? Calculations of how many such coincidences one would expect, given confirmation bias etc.? Belief that coincidence-detectable dark lords of the matrix are sufficiently unlikely that such calculations aren’t worth making? A desire not to look or be crazy?
@michael vassar
For the probability of a die coming up “6” eight times out of nine, I get about 1 in 200 thousand, not 1 in 2 million. If the die coming up anything (e.g., “1″ or “3”) eight times out of nine would have been similarly notable, I get 1 in 37 thousand.
Why do you override the urge to see dark lords of the martrix in these sorts of coincidences? Calculations of how many such coincidences one would expect, given confirmation bias etc.? Belief that coincidence-detectable dark lords of the matrix are sufficiently unlikely that such calculations aren’t worth making? A desire not to look or be crazy?