I agree that effective regulation would be hard. Indeed, we should expect it to be particularly hard to regulate against powerful AI, since finding effective regulation in an emerging domain is hard and since (perceived) incentives to create powerful AI may be strong.
But to me, the upshot is less “regulation won’t work” than “regulation needs teeth.” I’m currently most excited about potential regulations that involve strong enforcement and either strong auditing/verification or reliable passive monitoring. (This is similar to the two things in your section 2, framed differently.)
I agree that effective regulation would be hard. Indeed, we should expect it to be particularly hard to regulate against powerful AI, since finding effective regulation in an emerging domain is hard and since (perceived) incentives to create powerful AI may be strong.
But to me, the upshot is less “regulation won’t work” than “regulation needs teeth.” I’m currently most excited about potential regulations that involve strong enforcement and either strong auditing/verification or reliable passive monitoring. (This is similar to the two things in your section 2, framed differently.)