There’s a thing where entrepreneurs are optimistic. Sometimes ridiculously so. This is because entrepreneurship requires a lot of optimism to think that what you’re doing can work. But that optimism can lead you astray and cause you to work on things that are too hard.
Jess and Robin will never be entrepreneurs. They aren’t optimistic enough. But Elon may be over-optimistic. The sheer scope of the project makes it hard to guess accurately what the difficulties are going to be without getting pretty far into trying it and seeing where you get stuck.
And I’m just thinking about getting a Mars colony at all. I do think “self-sustaining” is a ridiculously high bar, much higher than simply having some people living on Mars. But how important is “self-sustaining” as a short-term goal? — if the colony works at all, there will be a path where the amount of Earth resources required to sustain it shrinks over time due to market forces.
And I’m just thinking about getting a Mars colony at all. I do think “self-sustaining” is a ridiculously high bar, much higher than simply having some people living on Mars.
This is one of my key takeaways so far from this (and from reading through Carl’s threerecentposts on the topic) -- that “colony” and “self-sustaining colony” are two very different goals.
if the colony works at all, there will be a path where the amount of Earth resources required to sustain it shrinks over time due to market forces
Why do you think that? On earth, colonies survived because they were able to secure a comparative advantage in the production of goods or services, which allowed them to be a net economic benefit to the originating country. What comparative advantage does Mars possess?
Any Martian colony, under the current technological regime, will require heavy economic subsidies for decades, possibly centuries. Who would pay for it? It’s one thing to pay a few billion dollars to send a few dozen astronauts to plant the flag and collect some scientific data. It’s quite another thing to spend trillions to support a population of thousands for little to no discernible benefit.
Not sure what Lincoln hand in mind regarding market forces, but one reason the cost to sustain the colony over time should shrink is just tech improvement. Operating the colony (at a given standard of living) should get cheaper over time.
Unless there’s a discontinuity (i.e. something like a space elevator resulting in more than one order of magnitude reduction in cost per ton to orbit) I suspect it would still be impossible to sustain a Martian colony for a nontrivial number of people. The physics and chemistry of conventional rockets just won’t allow it.
There’s a thing where entrepreneurs are optimistic. Sometimes ridiculously so. This is because entrepreneurship requires a lot of optimism to think that what you’re doing can work. But that optimism can lead you astray and cause you to work on things that are too hard.
Jess and Robin will never be entrepreneurs. They aren’t optimistic enough. But Elon may be over-optimistic. The sheer scope of the project makes it hard to guess accurately what the difficulties are going to be without getting pretty far into trying it and seeing where you get stuck.
And I’m just thinking about getting a Mars colony at all. I do think “self-sustaining” is a ridiculously high bar, much higher than simply having some people living on Mars. But how important is “self-sustaining” as a short-term goal? — if the colony works at all, there will be a path where the amount of Earth resources required to sustain it shrinks over time due to market forces.
This is one of my key takeaways so far from this (and from reading through Carl’s three recent posts on the topic) -- that “colony” and “self-sustaining colony” are two very different goals.
Why do you think that? On earth, colonies survived because they were able to secure a comparative advantage in the production of goods or services, which allowed them to be a net economic benefit to the originating country. What comparative advantage does Mars possess?
Any Martian colony, under the current technological regime, will require heavy economic subsidies for decades, possibly centuries. Who would pay for it? It’s one thing to pay a few billion dollars to send a few dozen astronauts to plant the flag and collect some scientific data. It’s quite another thing to spend trillions to support a population of thousands for little to no discernible benefit.
Not sure what Lincoln hand in mind regarding market forces, but one reason the cost to sustain the colony over time should shrink is just tech improvement. Operating the colony (at a given standard of living) should get cheaper over time.
Unless there’s a discontinuity (i.e. something like a space elevator resulting in more than one order of magnitude reduction in cost per ton to orbit) I suspect it would still be impossible to sustain a Martian colony for a nontrivial number of people. The physics and chemistry of conventional rockets just won’t allow it.