Prediction can’t be anything but a naive attempt at extrapolating past & current trends out into the future. Most of Kurzwel’s accurate predictions are just trends about technology that most people can easily notice. Social trends are much more complex, and those predictions of Kurzweil are off. Also, the occasional black swan is unpredictable by definition, and is usually what causes the most significant changes in our societies.
I like how sci-fi authors talk about their writings as not predicting what the future is going to look like (that’s impossible and getting more so), but as using the future to critique the present.
Lastly, Alan Kay’s quote always comes in handy when talking about future forecasting: “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
Prediction can’t be anything but a naive attempt at extrapolating past & current trends out into the future. Most of Kurzwel’s accurate predictions are just trends about technology that most people can easily notice. Social trends are much more complex, and those predictions of Kurzweil are off. Also, the occasional black swan is unpredictable by definition, and is usually what causes the most significant changes in our societies.
I like how sci-fi authors talk about their writings as not predicting what the future is going to look like (that’s impossible and getting more so), but as using the future to critique the present.
Lastly, Alan Kay’s quote always comes in handy when talking about future forecasting: “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”