I appreciate that in the example it just so happens that the person assigning a lower probability ends up assigning a higher probability that the other person at the beginning, because it is not intuitive that this can happen but actually very reasonable. Good post!
Yup, some people seem to think that one of the correct moves in ‘coming to agreement’ is that our probabilities begin to average out. (I have another’s post on this drafted.)
I appreciate that in the example it just so happens that the person assigning a lower probability ends up assigning a higher probability that the other person at the beginning, because it is not intuitive that this can happen but actually very reasonable. Good post!
Yup, some people seem to think that one of the correct moves in ‘coming to agreement’ is that our probabilities begin to average out. (I have another’s post on this drafted.)
Did you publish this other post?