The GPU company increase is notable because the reason Nvidia and AMD have done well has little to do with AI. It’s almost entirely about crypto, with some portion about video gaming. So while you would have done well if you had invested in GPU companies in 2015 because of AI, your results wouldn’t have actually been causally connected with your reasoning. If you take out Nvidia and AMD then your results are not nearly as much better compared to SPY. And I’m not really convinced that most of the rest of the tech increase has much to do with AI either, perhaps other than Tesla, although their increase seems more akin to Gamestop than to a company more based on fundamentals.
Of course, you could also have done better than the economy than by just investing in tech stocks, but that’s not nearly as much of an exciting conclusion (though still a bit of an exciting one).
However, that’s missing that the EMH is fundamentally based on risk—it’s easy to get better returns than the market, even over a five year time period, by investing leveraged. But then if the market goes down, it’s easy to lose everything. I haven’t calculated the numbers, but I suspect that someone who invested leveraged from 2015 to 2020 would have been looking great in January 2020 and then be bankrupt in April 2020. Tech has a different risk model than investing leveraged, but it definitely is higher risk than the overall US economy..
You can beat the market by investing in a high risk market, but that’s literally what the EMH tells you, so it’s a boring conclusion.
This is right. For people who do not know, you cannot actually use AMD GPUs for deep learning (at least not productively, AMD is trying to get there though), so AMD’s rise has little to do with AI.
You can sorta—as long as you don’t need specific CUDA features. I’ve generally had good experiences running Github pytorch/tensorflow code on RoCM. Though that’s on a Radeon VII, which isn’t sold anymore and was basically “datacenter GPU for home use”. My impression is that AMD have actually gotten worse recently at supporting deep learning on home GPUs, so maybe this is true nowadays.
The GPU company increase is notable because the reason Nvidia and AMD have done well has little to do with AI. It’s almost entirely about crypto, with some portion about video gaming. So while you would have done well if you had invested in GPU companies in 2015 because of AI, your results wouldn’t have actually been causally connected with your reasoning. If you take out Nvidia and AMD then your results are not nearly as much better compared to SPY. And I’m not really convinced that most of the rest of the tech increase has much to do with AI either, perhaps other than Tesla, although their increase seems more akin to Gamestop than to a company more based on fundamentals.
Of course, you could also have done better than the economy than by just investing in tech stocks, but that’s not nearly as much of an exciting conclusion (though still a bit of an exciting one).
However, that’s missing that the EMH is fundamentally based on risk—it’s easy to get better returns than the market, even over a five year time period, by investing leveraged. But then if the market goes down, it’s easy to lose everything. I haven’t calculated the numbers, but I suspect that someone who invested leveraged from 2015 to 2020 would have been looking great in January 2020 and then be bankrupt in April 2020. Tech has a different risk model than investing leveraged, but it definitely is higher risk than the overall US economy..
You can beat the market by investing in a high risk market, but that’s literally what the EMH tells you, so it’s a boring conclusion.
This is right. For people who do not know, you cannot actually use AMD GPUs for deep learning (at least not productively, AMD is trying to get there though), so AMD’s rise has little to do with AI.
You can sorta—as long as you don’t need specific CUDA features. I’ve generally had good experiences running Github pytorch/tensorflow code on RoCM. Though that’s on a Radeon VII, which isn’t sold anymore and was basically “datacenter GPU for home use”. My impression is that AMD have actually gotten worse recently at supporting deep learning on home GPUs, so maybe this is true nowadays.