No, you really really don’t. But this is sort for the record of “future you”. Start with (Neyman 1923) and (Rubin 1970).
I already had this conversation with gwern who basically eventually noticed that none of the naive causal analysis he was doing actually panned out, and he had to go and start learning all this stuff.
But you are not gwern, you are a demagogue, I don’t expect you to actually make scientific moves, or update on evidence, or anything. You need your precious causal factor to order people from best to worst.
No, you really really don’t. But this is sort for the record of “future you”. Start with (Neyman 1923) and (Rubin 1970).
I already had this conversation with gwern who basically eventually noticed that none of the naive causal analysis he was doing actually panned out, and he had to go and start learning all this stuff.
But you are not gwern, you are a demagogue, I don’t expect you to actually make scientific moves, or update on evidence, or anything. You need your precious causal factor to order people from best to worst.