Note that I have no idea what math to do here. The actual thing I’d do is try to figure out the reference class of ‘things that could be major disasters’, look how well the situation around them was handled (carefully, coordinated, sloppily, clumsily, etc) and then after getting close to the territory in that way, reflect loads on anthropics and wtf to update about it. I don’t know how to really do math on either.
Note that I have no idea what math to do here. The actual thing I’d do is try to figure out the reference class of ‘things that could be major disasters’, look how well the situation around them was handled (carefully, coordinated, sloppily, clumsily, etc) and then after getting close to the territory in that way, reflect loads on anthropics and wtf to update about it. I don’t know how to really do math on either.