Well-calibrated means that your certainty matches your odds of correctness. Do we really think that Beatrice can make ten trillion statements of this form and have only one of them be wrong? Even if she uses “Bayesian” methods? Or, if you prefer the wagering approach—do you really think she would bet at those odds?
Well-calibrated means that your certainty matches your odds of correctness. Do we really think that Beatrice can make ten trillion statements of this form and have only one of them be wrong? Even if she uses “Bayesian” methods? Or, if you prefer the wagering approach—do you really think she would bet at those odds?