Certainly, the planning fallacy applies. And even if, for example, arbitrage worked the way it seems, and without the extra pitfalls that have been mentioned, there’s a lot more to it than just swapping silver for gold and back. Harry’s 11, he can’t leave Hogwarts, his finances are tightly controlled by Dumbledore, 100,000 galleons = 1.7 million sickles ~= 17 tonnes of silver. Your dad doesn’t just slip that into his back pocket. You’re going to need help lifting it, security to guard it, vehicles to move it...
On the other hand, Harry has a lot of resources that haven’t even been mentioned yet. There’s a house in Godricks hollow for example, and the Granger’s would probably be willing to contribute.
He hasn’t even really made an accurate count of his vault. He described the stacks as a rough pyramid, but then estimates they’re 20 wide and 60 tall—so in other words, each step of the pyramid is only three coins high. I made a small model out of poker chips, and it looks more like a flat than a stack. If it were a normal author, I’d figure the description was bad and the “estimate” was spot on, but EY is smart enough to realize that estimates aren’t that accurate. Harry might have underestimated and already have 100,000. Of course, he might have over estimated instead.
and the Granger’s would probably be willing to contribute.
A good chance they could pay off the entire debt. They seemed very well off.
I’ve got a friend who is a dentist. He could pay it off if he wanted to. 2 dentists? If they had decent business sense, it wouldn’t be a problem. This is in the US, however. I’d guess that pay scales are different in Britain.
And he still owes 60,000 galleons, which is 1.2mil.
A pair of dentists with over a decade of practice? My friend with 15 years of practice by himself could handle that. It’s not pocket change, but this was to avoid the torture execution of their daughter. I think they could pony up for that.
This has its own problems, though. The Grangers were concerned enough when it seemed Harry might be dangerous, since he was temperamental at their house. They’d pull Hermione out of the wizarding world if they knew that she nearly got locked in a place that actively sucks away happiness.
First, I don’t know whether it’s an option to bail out of the wizarding world at this point. She has a blood debt to Malfoy which has yet to be paid off by Harry. I’m sure Harry would be fine with whatever she chose to do, but I don’t know that the wizarding world is going to let her walk, at least until the debt is paid.
And she better hide very well is she does walk, because Malfoy wants her dead. The only protection she has from that is the wizarding world.
Second, if a boy saves your daughter from a torture execution, throwing away his fortune, and going into hock for a fortune besides, you might feel obligated to pay down that debt, and even repay him his lost fortune, regardless of your choices about being a part of the wizarding world.
As far as transporting, Harry has a magical chest that contains entire rooms and can walk on its own. Dumbledore, Quirrel, or any bribeable adult wizard can teleport him to gringotts or to any muggle bank or jeweler he would like to go to, and there are definitely spells for swiftly transporting items across a room or whatever. I think by far a bigger problem would be getting any muggle bank to accept 17 tons of silver in a single transaction without any sort of possible background checks.
Luckily, there are magical methods. Confundus charm, say, or the Imperius curse. (Yes, that does have the downside of being unethical, so Harry probably would not do it.)
Certainly, the planning fallacy applies. And even if, for example, arbitrage worked the way it seems, and without the extra pitfalls that have been mentioned, there’s a lot more to it than just swapping silver for gold and back. Harry’s 11, he can’t leave Hogwarts, his finances are tightly controlled by Dumbledore, 100,000 galleons = 1.7 million sickles ~= 17 tonnes of silver. Your dad doesn’t just slip that into his back pocket. You’re going to need help lifting it, security to guard it, vehicles to move it...
On the other hand, Harry has a lot of resources that haven’t even been mentioned yet. There’s a house in Godricks hollow for example, and the Granger’s would probably be willing to contribute.
He hasn’t even really made an accurate count of his vault. He described the stacks as a rough pyramid, but then estimates they’re 20 wide and 60 tall—so in other words, each step of the pyramid is only three coins high. I made a small model out of poker chips, and it looks more like a flat than a stack. If it were a normal author, I’d figure the description was bad and the “estimate” was spot on, but EY is smart enough to realize that estimates aren’t that accurate. Harry might have underestimated and already have 100,000. Of course, he might have over estimated instead.
Maybe he should learn a magical counting spell.
A good chance they could pay off the entire debt. They seemed very well off.
I’ve got a friend who is a dentist. He could pay it off if he wanted to. 2 dentists? If they had decent business sense, it wouldn’t be a problem. This is in the US, however. I’d guess that pay scales are different in Britain.
I think you may be thinking of 100,000 dollars or pounds. 100,000 galleons is 2 million pounds.
And he still owes 60,000 galleons, which is 1.2mil.
A pair of dentists with over a decade of practice? My friend with 15 years of practice by himself could handle that. It’s not pocket change, but this was to avoid the torture execution of their daughter. I think they could pony up for that.
This has its own problems, though. The Grangers were concerned enough when it seemed Harry might be dangerous, since he was temperamental at their house. They’d pull Hermione out of the wizarding world if they knew that she nearly got locked in a place that actively sucks away happiness.
First, I don’t know whether it’s an option to bail out of the wizarding world at this point. She has a blood debt to Malfoy which has yet to be paid off by Harry. I’m sure Harry would be fine with whatever she chose to do, but I don’t know that the wizarding world is going to let her walk, at least until the debt is paid.
And she better hide very well is she does walk, because Malfoy wants her dead. The only protection she has from that is the wizarding world.
Second, if a boy saves your daughter from a torture execution, throwing away his fortune, and going into hock for a fortune besides, you might feel obligated to pay down that debt, and even repay him his lost fortune, regardless of your choices about being a part of the wizarding world.
Besides what dandavis says, even in canon Hermione memory-charmed her parents.
As far as transporting, Harry has a magical chest that contains entire rooms and can walk on its own. Dumbledore, Quirrel, or any bribeable adult wizard can teleport him to gringotts or to any muggle bank or jeweler he would like to go to, and there are definitely spells for swiftly transporting items across a room or whatever. I think by far a bigger problem would be getting any muggle bank to accept 17 tons of silver in a single transaction without any sort of possible background checks.
Luckily, there are magical methods. Confundus charm, say, or the Imperius curse. (Yes, that does have the downside of being unethical, so Harry probably would not do it.)