I’m less interested in comparing groups of forecasters with each other based on brier scores than with getting a referendum on forecasting generally.
The forecasting industry has a collective interest in maintaining their reputation for predictive accuracy on general questions. I want to know if they are in fact accurate in general questions, or whether some of their apparent success rests on choosing the questions that they address with some cunning.
I’m less interested in comparing groups of forecasters with each other based on brier scores than with getting a referendum on forecasting generally.
The forecasting industry has a collective interest in maintaining their reputation for predictive accuracy on general questions. I want to know if they are in fact accurate in general questions, or whether some of their apparent success rests on choosing the questions that they address with some cunning.