BTW, a few days ago Eliezer made a specific prediction that is perhaps relevant to your discussion:
I [would very tentatively guess that] AGI to kill everyone before self-driving cars are commercialized
(I suppose Eliezer is talking about Level 5 autonomy cars here).
Maybe a bet like this could work:
At least one month will elapse after the first Level 5 autonomy car hits the road, without AGI killing everyone.
“Level 5 autonomy” could be further specified to avoid ambiguities. For example, like this:
The car must be publicly accessible (e.g. available for purchase, or as a taxi etc). The car should be able to drive from some East Coast city to some West Coast city by itself.
Once you can buy a self-driving car, the thing that Paul predicts with surety and that I shrug about has already happened. If it does happen, my model says very little about remaining timeline from there one way or another. It shrugs again and says, “Guess that’s how difficult the AI problem and regulatory problem were.”
BTW, a few days ago Eliezer made a specific prediction that is perhaps relevant to your discussion:
(I suppose Eliezer is talking about Level 5 autonomy cars here).
Maybe a bet like this could work:
At least one month will elapse after the first Level 5 autonomy car hits the road, without AGI killing everyone.
“Level 5 autonomy” could be further specified to avoid ambiguities. For example, like this:
The car must be publicly accessible (e.g. available for purchase, or as a taxi etc). The car should be able to drive from some East Coast city to some West Coast city by itself.
Once you can buy a self-driving car, the thing that Paul predicts with surety and that I shrug about has already happened. If it does happen, my model says very little about remaining timeline from there one way or another. It shrugs again and says, “Guess that’s how difficult the AI problem and regulatory problem were.”