This is my take: if I had been very epistemically self-aware, and carefully distinguished my own impression/models and my all-things considered beliefs, before I started reading, then this would’ve updated my models towards Eliezer (because hey, I heard new not-entirely-uncompelling arguments) but my all-things considered beliefs away from Eliezer (because I would have expected it to be even more convincing).
I’m not that surprised by the survey results. Most people don’t obey conservation of expected evidence, because they don’t take into account arguments they haven’t heard / don’t think carefully enough about how deferring to others works. People will predictably update toward a thesis after reading a book that argues for it, not have a 50⁄50 chance of updating positively or negatively on it.
This is my take: if I had been very epistemically self-aware, and carefully distinguished my own impression/models and my all-things considered beliefs, before I started reading, then this would’ve updated my models towards Eliezer (because hey, I heard new not-entirely-uncompelling arguments) but my all-things considered beliefs away from Eliezer (because I would have expected it to be even more convincing).
I’m not that surprised by the survey results. Most people don’t obey conservation of expected evidence, because they don’t take into account arguments they haven’t heard / don’t think carefully enough about how deferring to others works. People will predictably update toward a thesis after reading a book that argues for it, not have a 50⁄50 chance of updating positively or negatively on it.