Should we stop there and take it as our belief that there is a 20% chance that they are effective? No!
You need not stop there, but getting an answer that is in conflict with your intuitions does not give you free reign to fight it with non-evidence. If you think there’s a chance the empirical evidence so far may have some bias you can look for the bias. If you think the empirical evidence could be bolstered by further experimentation you perform further experimentation. Trying to misalign your prior in light of the evidence with the goal of sticking to your original intuitions however is not ok. What you’re doing is giving in to motivated reasoning and then post-hoc trying to find some way to say that’s ok. I would call that meta-level rationalization.
You need not stop there, but getting an answer that is in conflict with your intuitions does not give you free reign to fight it with non-evidence. If you think there’s a chance the empirical evidence so far may have some bias you can look for the bias. If you think the empirical evidence could be bolstered by further experimentation you perform further experimentation. Trying to misalign your prior in light of the evidence with the goal of sticking to your original intuitions however is not ok. What you’re doing is giving in to motivated reasoning and then post-hoc trying to find some way to say that’s ok. I would call that meta-level rationalization.