At that point France had been a democracy or democratic republic for 88 years. (I’m not counting the First Republic because it was chaotic and included the Reign of Terror. I’m not counting the Second Republic because it lasted only 4 years and was sandwiched between longer-lasting intervals of dictatorship and monarchy. I am counting the Nazi occupation because I consider its cause to have been external to France and thus not a sign that French democracy was deficient. Also, it was sandwiched between much longer intervals of democracy.)
Then again 88 years is not 231 years, and there were much stronger signs (namely, the “recurrent cabinet crises” described by the Wikipedia article) in the years leading up to 1958 that the French system of government was unsatisfactory than there have been so far IMHO of the unsatisfactoriness of the US system (and one of the effects of the coup—in addition to a new leader—was a new French constitution).
Great point! I missed that important example, thank you.
Two notes on military coups, as the French coup illustrates.
they are unusually easy to launch. Suppose a majority faction of officers prefers to remain in the barracks, In the minority faction prefers a coup, but both factions prefer unity to civil war. If a minority faction begins a coup the majority will join to avoid a civil war.
They are unusually short. Once the coup has been launched the ruling junta is in the same position. Any officer faction can announce a return to the barracks and threaten Civil War as well. Remember that the officers will likely continue their lucrative professional careers post regime. Therefore these coups tend to be short-lived Unless a single officer can personalize power around himself (Mugabe, Assad) and alienate the rest of the officers. The short outcome would be very likely in the event of US coup.
A US coup would almost certainly require escalating political violence outside the military to polarize our anti-praetorian, moderate military. IIRC the officer core is Republican leaning but with plenty of Romney Clinton’s (some magazine survey).
>We have never heard of a coup in a rich old democracy
There was a successful coup in France in 1958: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1958_crisis_in_France
At that point France had been a democracy or democratic republic for 88 years. (I’m not counting the First Republic because it was chaotic and included the Reign of Terror. I’m not counting the Second Republic because it lasted only 4 years and was sandwiched between longer-lasting intervals of dictatorship and monarchy. I am counting the Nazi occupation because I consider its cause to have been external to France and thus not a sign that French democracy was deficient. Also, it was sandwiched between much longer intervals of democracy.)
Then again 88 years is not 231 years, and there were much stronger signs (namely, the “recurrent cabinet crises” described by the Wikipedia article) in the years leading up to 1958 that the French system of government was unsatisfactory than there have been so far IMHO of the unsatisfactoriness of the US system (and one of the effects of the coup—in addition to a new leader—was a new French constitution).
(Also, IIUC the coup was basically bloodless.)
Great point! I missed that important example, thank you.
Two notes on military coups, as the French coup illustrates.
they are unusually easy to launch. Suppose a majority faction of officers prefers to remain in the barracks, In the minority faction prefers a coup, but both factions prefer unity to civil war. If a minority faction begins a coup the majority will join to avoid a civil war.
They are unusually short. Once the coup has been launched the ruling junta is in the same position. Any officer faction can announce a return to the barracks and threaten Civil War as well. Remember that the officers will likely continue their lucrative professional careers post regime. Therefore these coups tend to be short-lived Unless a single officer can personalize power around himself (Mugabe, Assad) and alienate the rest of the officers. The short outcome would be very likely in the event of US coup.
A US coup would almost certainly require escalating political violence outside the military to polarize our anti-praetorian, moderate military. IIRC the officer core is Republican leaning but with plenty of Romney Clinton’s (some magazine survey).