With a seven-day incubation period, does that mean it’s 0 protection until about day 4, then near-perfect protection after that? (As per jimrandomh’s comment of 4⁄17.)
I think this is right here, though I’d push it forwards a little. 7 days incubation +a few days to detect for some people etc, and you’re probably looking at reasonable protection even on t+1 and t+2. I think basically the “dose+ 14 days” is coming down to the fact that it takes us up to 14 days to detect. Otherwise, those two numbers (and pieces of guidance) are suprisingly similar.
The big caveat to all this is that the NEJM figure (based on Pfizer’s EUA submission) is focused on OG covid, not covid 2.0.
But the math I did back when I got my shot (based on that figure + an incubation period), was that within 2 days I was at like 70% efficacy.
From that figure, it looks to me like roughly 0 protection until day 10 or 11, and then near perfect protection after that. Surprisingly non-smooth!
With a seven-day incubation period, does that mean it’s 0 protection until about day 4, then near-perfect protection after that? (As per jimrandomh’s comment of 4⁄17.)
I think this is right here, though I’d push it forwards a little. 7 days incubation +a few days to detect for some people etc, and you’re probably looking at reasonable protection even on t+1 and t+2. I think basically the “dose+ 14 days” is coming down to the fact that it takes us up to 14 days to detect. Otherwise, those two numbers (and pieces of guidance) are suprisingly similar.
The big caveat to all this is that the NEJM figure (based on Pfizer’s EUA submission) is focused on OG covid, not covid 2.0.
But the math I did back when I got my shot (based on that figure + an incubation period), was that within 2 days I was at like 70% efficacy.