I thought Team Liquid might win (p = 60%). When I saw Team Secret win a minor skirmish (teamfight) against Team Liquid, I made a new prediction of “Team Secret will win (p = 75%)”. However, my original guess was correct: Team Secret eventually won that game.
I think you mean “Team Liquid eventually won the game” here, since that seems to have been your original guess.
Also, it would be interesting to see how the Dota Plus win probabilities at, say 15 minutes into the match, hold up against the actual wins/losses in the games. On the one hand, it seems very difficult to have good predictions in a game like Dota where things can turn around at the drop of a hat, but on the other hand we have OpenAI Five claiming 85% win chance just at the end of the drafting phase.
I think you mean “Team Liquid eventually won the game” here, since that seems to have been your original guess.
Also, it would be interesting to see how the Dota Plus win probabilities at, say 15 minutes into the match, hold up against the actual wins/losses in the games. On the one hand, it seems very difficult to have good predictions in a game like Dota where things can turn around at the drop of a hat, but on the other hand we have OpenAI Five claiming 85% win chance just at the end of the drafting phase.